R3 KOTEWALL HANDICAP

Class 4 - 1200m


Happy Valley (M85) - Wednesday, 8 July 2020

19:45 HK TIME

summary


There looks to be plenty of pace in this event and it might set up nicely for those horses that can get a sit around midfield or behind. XPONENTIAL shapes to potentially be the best option in this event. He trialed quite well at Happy Valley earlier this season and importantly should get the right run in transit. Last start’s run was best forgotten as he had little luck, but his effort prior was a solid reference for tonight’s event. HARMONY N HOME went well in a recent trial with Xponential and indicated he might be able to perform better. His clear issue is where he will be positioned in the running with Chan on board? MALDIVES ran with merit on his debut at Sha Tin when he settled back in the field and made some late headway, posting a slick final-400m (22.50). If Shinn is able to settle him closer this time from barrier 2 then he must be respected, as this is a much weaker race on paper. SPRINT FORWARD had to do a little early work last time which might have taken its toll late in the race and he doesn’t need to lead to win. If he can take a sit behind the pace then he should figure in the finish – he’s very short though! A potential value chance at bigger price is SWEETLY BABY. He has been on my radar for a while now and continues to close his races off well. He leaves the impression that he is looking for a mile but if he doesn’t give away too much ground in the early stages then he might be able to hit the frame at decent odds. Having small outlays on Maldives and Sweetly Baby to win makes most appeal here.

selections


1 XPONENTIAL

(rp – $6.00)

1st @ $8.75 & $2.20

3 SPRINT FORWARD

(rp – $5.00)

5th

7 MALDIVES

(rp – $7.50)

4th

12 SWEETLY BABY

(rp – $9.00)

8th

2 HARMONY N HOME

(rp – $15.00)

3rd @ $4.65p

strategy


7 MALDIVES

WIN (1.5 units)

12 SWEETLY BABY

WIN (1.5 units)

speed


MAJESTIC CONQUEROR and FANTASTIC FABIO have the early legs to work across towards the lead from wider barriers with SPRINT FORWARD likely to be asked to hold a forward spot as well. SKY TREASURE is another with some early speed that could be used, with GALLANT CROWN drawn to sit just behind these.

SEASON 2018/19 FINAL TOTAL STATS UPDATE:


88

MEETINGS

2292.8

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+239.8

UNITS (10.46% PROFIT)