best selections and strategies
Happy Valley (M85) - Wednesday, 8 July 2020
21.5 units Strategy
best outlays
RACE 6
2 TOTAL POWER (rp – $3.70)
WIN (5 units)
8 AUTHENTIC CHAMP (rp – $8.00)
WIN (1 unit)
TOTAL POWER got into a really awkward position last start and should have run far closer to the eventual winner. Tonight, although not as well drawn, he looks like he should get his chance to win at an excellent early price and he’s therefore my best. AUTHENTIC CHAMP is another runner priced too big and for that reason I have to have a unit on him to win as well.
Results: 2nd (-5 units) + 10th (-1 unit) -> (-6 units)
NEXT BEST OUTLAYS
RACE 2
2 FEARLESS FIRE (rp – $2.40)
WIN (4.5 units)
FEARLESS FIRE fought on really well last time after receiving a wide trip without any luck. Purton takes the ride on a horse that well-drawn and is ready to win. He’s not a huge over, but is nevertheless one of the better winning chances on the night.
Result: 5th (-4.5 units)
RACE 9
8 BRAVE KING (rp – $3.80)
WIN (4 units)
12 LIGHTNING STEED (rp – $8.00)
WIN (1 unit)
BRAVE KING has been racing in good form and comes out of a very strong race last start. Whilst he was given every chance, the winner has been competitive since stepping up in grade and Alpha Hedge bolted up when next asked, so there are a few positives that make him a good bet here. LIGHTNING STEED’S last two wins have rated okay and the prospect of one of the runs of the race means he too is worth a small outlay.
Results: 6th (-4 units) + 2nd (-1 unit) -> (-5 units)
RACE 7
7 WIND N GRASS (rp – $4.80)
WIN (3 units)
WIND N GRASS is a horse that has been on my radar for a few starts and looks a great opportunity for Jack Wong to notch up his 8th win of the term. Having confidence in the rider is the main issue here, and whilst everything looks ideal on paper, it’s difficult to get too bullish.
Results: 1st @ $8.00 BC (+21 units)
RACE 3
7 MALDIVES (rp – $7.50)
WIN (1.5 units)
12 SWEETLY BABY (rp – $9.00)
WIN (1.5 units)
Two of the better overs at bigger prices tonight are MALDIVES and SWEETLY BABY. I’m happy to speck them both, particularly given that SPRINT FORWARD has come up way to short by my assessment.
Results: 4th (-1.5 units) + 8th (-1.5 units) -> (-3 units)
Overall result for 21.5 units strategy
+2.5 UNITS (12% PROFIT)
Wow, Lightning Steed was extremely stiff there getting a major check at the 450m by Tashidelek when the race was getting serious. He would’ve gone very close. Added a couple of second-placings from the strategy, which continues to be a frustration.
Some excellent results though from Wind N Grass and that ensured a small profit for the Strategy and Supreme Plus closed at a very tasty $12.45. So overall it was a very solid form night, without a whole lot luck… typical for Happy Valley!
Zac has wrapped up the jockey’s championship now with a double, making the lead 8.
Moreira is back on Sunday at Sha Tin, so I’ll catch you then.
Cheers
Hutch
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SEASON 2018/19 FINAL TOTAL STATS UPDATE:
88
MEETINGS
2292.8
TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS
+239.8
UNITS (10.46% PROFIT)