R4 DURHAM HANDICAP

Class 3 - 1000m


Happy Valley (M78) - Wednesday, 10 June 2020

20:15 HK TIME

summary


This Class 3 event certainly isn’t straightforward given the amount of potential pressure in the map, and the entry of a talented looking Hong Kong debutant. On exposed raceday form FLYING GENIUS is the obvious choice as the horse to beat. He looks a potential leader of the race and if a couple of other runners sit off him, then that could allow him to get it done. His recent form has rated pretty well against decent opposition. GREEN AEON is a very interesting horse. Caspar Fownes presents him first-up in Hong Kong on the back of some excellent trials and work, as well as rock-solid Australian form. Under Bjorn Baker in Australia, he was able to finish within a length of Fasika and General’s Delight (ex. Millard Reaction) in a Listed race of decent quality. The trainer has a reasonable record of delivering “PP” horses to win at the first time of asking in a Hong Kong Class 3 (for example, Winning Delight and Perfect Glory last season). Getting his price right though isn’t an exact science. METRO WARRIOR drops back to 1000m and should be a better horse having had the run. He could stalk the speed and be a contender late. DIAMOND BRILLIANT has the blinkers reapplied and an inside draw. If he can jump on terms and hold a good position then he could win, although he’s had a few chances and come up short. This isn’t a race I’m hugely confident about, but use my prices accordingly.

selections


3 FLYING GENIUS

(rp – $4.00)

9th

1 GREEN AEON

(rp – $4.50)

4th

4 METRO WARRIOR

(rp – $6.50)

8th

5 DIAMOND BRILLIANT

(rp – $9.00)

2nd @ $1.85p

strategy


CHECK PRICES AND OUTLAY ACCORDINGLY

speed


The pace should be at least GOOD here with FLYING GENIUS and FLYING BONUS contesting for the lead from GREEN AEON and AMAZING KIWI. ETERNAL HARVEST can sit just behind the leading bunch from DIAMOND BRILLIANT.

SEASON 2018/19 FINAL TOTAL STATS UPDATE:


88

MEETINGS

2292.8

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+239.8

UNITS (10.46% PROFIT)