The first event is a competitive way to start the night, but FARM BUMPER has been pretty hard to knock on his recent form, in particular his last three starts, which have all come over 1000m. Tonight he’ll step up to 1200m, which he appears to be looking for now and with a touch of luck in the running, he can notch another win. GINTOKI could be the real improver given he ran well first-up for 4^thafter doing some early work and tonight maps to get a nice run on the pace. Of course he is unplaced from 13 local starts so it is hard to be overly confident and he’s also bled before. MANAGEMENT SUPREME is a lightly raced galloper who finished runner-up on his second career start after getting plenty of pressure on the lead. He might have to do some work again from barrier 9, but he has clear upside and is obviously open to further improvement given he’s only had two starts. The drop in grade is very interesting for GOODLUCK LOODLUCK who has the cheek-pieces re-applied. I liked his recent trial and it’ll pay to watch his price for potential value. HAPPY GOOD GUYS is found in the market with Joao Moreira booked to ride and whilst I doubt he will be far away given where he’ll sit in the running, he is too short and that fact will allow us to shop for some value around him. There’s good value around Farm Bumper, Gintoki and Goodluck Goodluck to win, but if you don’t want to outlay so much then taking my first four selections in a boxed quinella still holds a lot of value.