ANALYSIS – Wednesday, 20 May 2020

best selections and strategies

Happy Valley (M72) - Wednesday, 20 May 2020

Best Bets HH Live Race 1 Race 2 Race 3 Race 4 Race 5 Race 6 Race 7 Race 8 Race 9

30 units Strategy

best outlays

RACE 5

1 ARES (rp – $1.80)

WIN (8.5 units)

1 with 2

QUINELLA (1 unit)

1 with 6

QUINELLA (0.5 unit)

ARES ran an enormous race last time and following a break has worked really well in preparation for his resumption today. With any luck in the running he should have the measure of this field and he can win in a higher grade. There’s some value in quinellas with HERO TIME and also GOLDEN GLORY at bigger odds.

Results: 4th (-8.5 units) + 6th & 7th (-1.5 units) -> (-10 units)

NEXT BEST OUTLAYS

RACE 6

4 JADE PHOENIX (rp – $3.20)

WIN (5 units)

8 INTERSTELLAR (rp – $5.00)

WIN (2.5 units)

I’m prepared to take on the early market favourite SIMPLY FLUKE, primarily with JADE PHOENIX the horse I have assessed as the hardest to beat. He’s trialled at the Valley before and maps ideally to get the job done tonight. INTERSTELLAR is a potential leader and hinted last time that he was close to winning form.

Results: 7th (-5 units) + 2nd (-2.5 units) -> (-7.5 units)

RACE 8

2 GOLDEN DASH (rp – $3.00)

WIN (4 units)

8 WHAT A LEGEND (rp – $7.00)

WIN (1.5 units)

GOLDEN DASH is drawn to a genuine speed and has a very good second-up record with Purton knowing when to jump on his back. He should get all favours and if he doesn’t then WHAT A LEGEND is more than capable off his best figures of running better than market expectation here.

Results: 1st @ $3.30 BC (+9.2 units) + 5th (-1.5 units) -> (+7.7 units)

RACE 3

6 LIGHTNING STEED (rp – $3.20)

WIN (3.5 units)

10 SEIZE THE SPIRIT (rp – $7.00)

WIN (1.5 units)

With a more measured ride, LIGHTNING STEED can break through and win again tonight. If Moreira can control the tempo from outside of the lead then he can get a deserved first placing. SEIZE THE SPIRIT was very stiff when he last competed and with a cleaner run tonight can win at bigger odds.

Results: 1st @ $4.00 BC (+10 units) +3rd (-1.5 units) -> (+8.5 units)

RACE 7

12 NORDIC WARRIOR (rp – $5.00)

WIN (2 units)

In a pretty even race NORDIC WARRIOR stands out as a decent “over”. I like the increased distance for him today and given his price one has to have something on him.

Result: 5th (-2 units)

Overall result for 30 units strategy

-3.3 UNITS (11% LOSS)

Golden Dash and Lightning Steed were two winning highlights for the evening and those results meant that even though the best didn’t score, any losses were minimised from a Strategy perspective. Ares is a horse that I’m sure will settle in a higher grade or two, so maybe time is what he needs.

I’ll be noting in my SID review for the meeting the distinct advantage of being on the rails. Over the short courses in particular being on the lead and from inside draws were dynamite. Also before the last race significant rain changed that track. Hopefully that’ll lead into a couple of decent plays before the end of the season.

Speaking of which, the last Group 1 race is on Sunday at Sha Tin, the 2400m Champions & Chater Cup.

Catch you for the card then.

Cheers

Hutch

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