R7 SHUI LONG WO HANDICAP

Class 3 - 1600m


Sha Tin (M71) - Sunday, 17 May 2020

16:05 HK TIME

summary


It is easy to make a case for CHEERFUL LEADER with the assumption that he will get a soft lead in a race devoid of any early pace, with Joao Moreira dictating terms to suit and therefore prove hardest to beat. Cheerful Leader was a touch unlucky last time and had genuine excuses. That said, I think there are a couple of runners flying under the radar here that can be played at odds, or certainly in conjunction with the likely favourite. XIANG YIN and REYNOLDS both appeal and each should be at a decent price and value. The former was a sectional star on his only run this season over 1200m, which was a far too short, and he did extremely well to sustain a long run under pressure. Xiang Yin will strip fitter and hopefully map a lot closer to the leaders today. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they tried to make the running with REYNOLDS and given his profile, Moreira might be happy to let him do so. Reynolds’ last run at Happy Valley was a lot better than it looked and with the 4.5kg claim and the chance to lead or sit on the leader’s back, I think he can run better than his early price might suggest. TUNG WAH GLORY probably won’t get the pace to suit him, but he has upside and deserves respect. I’m happy to have small outlays on Reynolds and Xiang Yin to win and there’s value in the quinellas with Cheerful Leader.

selections


9 REYNOLDS

(rp – $9.00)

8th

8 CHEERFUL LEADER

(rp – $3.50)

3rd @ 1.25p

3 XIANG YIN

(rp – $10.00)

4th

10 TUNG WAH GLORY

(rp – $7.00)

7th

strategy


9 REYNOLDS

WIN (1 unit)

3 XIANG YIN

WIN (1 unit)

8 with 9 & 3

QUINELLA (1 unit each, 2 units total)

speed


REYNOLDS might be able to lead this race at a tempo on the SLOW side of GOOD. CHEERFUL LEADER will race on the pace and is a contender to lead as well. EVER LAUGH might work forward to a good position from WEALTHY EMPLOYEE.

SEASON 2018/19 FINAL TOTAL STATS UPDATE:


88

MEETINGS

2292.8

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+239.8

UNITS (10.46% PROFIT)