R6 CARNATION HANDICAP

Class 3 - 1000m


Happy Valley (M68) - Wednesday, 6 May 2020

21:15 HK TIME

summary


BE READY is one of my best bets of the night. The wide gate proved costly for him last time and he was gallant in defeat behind LARSON. That pair continues their rivalry tonight and this time, a weight swing (4kg) and a gate that both favour Be Ready might make all the difference. We were keen on Larson last time and he ran well, just 2L off his previous efforts and perhaps the yielding conditions were the contributing factor to that underperformance? I expect that he will roll forward once again and has to be given due respect. FLYING GENIUS is a genuine contender with the switch back to the city circuit. He is drawn to settle handy to the lead, although there is a fair amount of pressure in this event that’s likely to come from his outside. Nonetheless, he has won two of three over the track and trip and is competitively weighted once again. I am not quite sure what to do with VICTORY IN HAND, and depending on his price he might have to be a smaller outlay to win. A number of his efforts have rated well and I think coming back to 1000m will be a major positive. Jack Wong is booked to ride, and that erodes my confidence however in getting the job done, so you will need a decent price to back him. Whatever the case might be, I will be primarily backing Be Ready to win.

selections


3 BE READY

(rp – $2.70)

3rd @ $1.65p (trifecta/tierce with 2 & 8 @ $87.30)

10 VICTORY IN HAND

(rp – $6.00)

5th

8 FLYING GENIUS

(rp – $7.00)

2nd @ $1.30p (quinella with 2 @ $11.50)

2 LARSON

(rp – $10.00)

1st @ $5.35 & $2.05 ($8.00 BC)

strategy


3 BE READY

WIN (6 units)

speed


FLYING GENIUS will be asked to hold a forward position from barrier 2, but will have to sustain some pressure from VERY SWEET ORANGE, HANDSOME REBEL and LARSON if he wants to hold the lead. VICTORY IN HAND and BE READY both map to receive ideal runs behind the main speed here.

SEASON 2018/19 FINAL TOTAL STATS UPDATE:


88

MEETINGS

2292.8

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+239.8

UNITS (10.46% PROFIT)