best selections and strategies


Sha Tin (M67) - Sunday, 3 May 2020

24 units Strategy

best outlays


RACE 11

10 JUNEAU PARK (rp – $3.50)

WIN (6.5 units)

6 PRIVATE ROCKET (rp – $7.00) 

WIN (1.5 units)

JUNEAU PARK has been a model of consistency through out his career and this race presents well for him to win again. There’s good speed for him to follow and I expect that he can bounce-back following last start, where many might have thought he performed below par. PRIVATE ROCKET can run well and is worth a small “saver” given his early price.

Results: 10th (-6.5 units) + 4th (-1.5 units) -> (-8 units)

NEXT BEST OUTLAYS


RACE 7

5 GALACTIC (rp – $2.80)

WIN (4.5 units)

1 MONSTER KAKA (rp – $4.00) 

WIN (2.5 units)

GALACTIC was poorly ridden last time, so from a handier barrier, in a race with less pressure I expect Moreira to atone. He ran really well considering the work he did, so today he gets more favourable race conditions. MONSTER KAKA rates very highly and will just need a strong Shinn ride early to be a leading winning chance.

Results: 9th (-4.5 units) + 3rd (-2.5 units) -> (-7 units)

RACE 4

8 KINDA COOL (rp – $3.50)

WIN (3.5 units)

8 with 6

QUINELLA (1 unit)

8 with 4 & 13 

QUINELLA (0.5 unit, 1 unit total)

This race is rather thin for leading chances, but I liked the way KINDA COOL has moved in trials and his work leading in to his debut. FABULOUS EIGHT is the logical horse for him to beat and is a good quinella option, with CHUNG WAH SPIRIT and HERE COMES TED capable of running into the finish from back in the field.

Result: 2nd (-3.5 units) + 1st quinella @ $9.60 (+8.6 units) + 8th & 9th (-1 unit) -> (+4.1 units)

RACE 8

5 LONDON HALL (rp – $3.00)

WIN (3.5 units)

LONDON HALL sat close to a brutal speed last start and stayed on okay. He was in good form prior as well, so to me rates as clearly the horse to beat in an otherwise messy looking race on paper.

Result: 9th (-3.5 units)

Overall result for 24 units strategy


-14.4 UNITS  (60% LOSS)

That wraps another disappointing meeting with Juneau Park settling (rather surprisingly) quite a bit further back in the running than where I’d mapped him. From there, they didn’t actually run that hard on the clock and in a sprint home he was too far back.

It’s been a bad five meetings and whilst it can happen, it rarely has been the case on this service in nearly three years (and in over 20 years that I’ve been following Hong Kong) to be on a “trot” such as this from a Strategy perspective. The higher confidence races aren’t performing as I’d like, amazingly some of the lessor confidence races are! It is variance, I’m confidence of that, but it is still not ideal.

That said, the process of doing the form and getting the right horses to back remains the same. I’ll be continuing to work hard to deliver as such, by finding any chinks in my ratings and assessments, sorting those and continuing on! It is important in betting to have a bigger picture view, and managing these scenarios is an important part of the game. In Hong Kong racing, a losing run can be even more stark (magnified) with only 2 meetings a week as opposed to racing every day.

There have been quite a few new people sign up to HH over the past month, so I want you to have a positive experience. The same positive experience that many of my loyal followers have had since Hutchi’s Honkers began. I value your following highly.

So, with that in mind, if you have purchased today’s meeting, or used a credit, then I’ve decided that you’ll be able to access my full analysis this Wednesday (6 May) and Saturday (9 May) without any additional charge (i.e. free). Just make sure you’re logged-in and you’ll be able to view all secured member’s pages.

Catch you Wednesday – the worm will turn!

Hutch.