best selections and strategies
Happy Valley (M66) - Wednesday, 29 April 2020
23 units Strategy
best outlays
RACE 8
1 CINQUANTE CINQ (rp – $2.50)
WIN (6 units)
11 OWNERS’ STAR (rp – $6.50)
WIN (2 units)
CINQUANTE CINQ didn’t have many favours last start, but his run prior was more than good enough, so with a repeat of that tonight he is my best of the card. OWNERS’ STAR is consistent and can race well again, so at his price he’s worth a small outlay too. If he were to upset Cinquante Cinq, then I don’t want to be losing on the race.
Results: 2nd (-6 units) + 8th (-2 units) -> (-8 units)
NEXT BEST OUTLAYS
RACE 5
7 WOOD ON FIRE (rp – $3.80)
WIN (4 units)
2 LADY FIRST (rp – $6.50)
WIN (1.5 units)
WOOD ON FIRE is ready to win his first race and even though he’s had a few chances, has presented at good value to back to break through. LADY FIRST is a “non-winner” in some respects, but his overall levels of form are good for a race like this, so I respect his chances.
Results: 11th (-4 units) + 7th (-1.5 units) -> (-5.5 units)
RACE 4
3 COLONEL (rp – $4.00)
WIN (3 units)
12 WHO’S HORSE (rp – $8.00)
WIN (1 unit)
COLONEL is a horse that can run be right in the fight to win if he can work across to outside of the leader early in this race. I believe that getting that spot is likely, hence rating him where I have. WHO’S HORSE is drawn to get a super run, and I’ve seen enough in his short career to suggest he couldn’t surprise the market, even though he’s on the cusp of a drop in grade.
Results: 12th (-3 units) + 9th (-1 unit) -> (-4 units)
RACE 7
3 YOUNG LEGEND (rp – $4.50)
WIN (2.5 units)
6 LE TERROIR (rp – $14.00)
WIN (0.5 unit)
YOUNG LEGEND was very good winning last time and off that effort rates clear of his opposition tonight. The knock is that Purton rides DIAMOND BRILLIANT, but nevertheless I’m happy to back the former. LE TERROIR caught my eye down the straight last time and featured in my SID review of the meeting. He’s at a mark where he can win again and whilst it might be a start too soon, he looks to be in decent form.
RACE 9
9 VICTORY POWER (rp – $7.50)
WIN (1.5 units)
3 JUMBO HAPPINESS (rp – $9.00)
WIN (1 unit)
The last race isn’t straightforward but there are two horses at big prices that are worth small outlays, VICTORY POWER and JUMBO HAPPINESS. I forecast strong speed that will suit their run style, so hopefully they do go hard in front, which will enable them to swoop late!
Results: 9th (-1.5 units) + 5th (-1 unit) -> (-2.5 units)
Overall result for 23 units strategy
-23 UNITS (100% LOSS)
Well, the best Cinquante Cinq was terribly unlucky with a horse blocking him three-wide and another falling back on his lap, but outside of that some very disappointing under-performers from the strategy.
Colonel got hammered in the straight and was lucky to stay on his feet, Wood On Fire sat three-wide from barrier 3 and the Young Legend ride was a strange one indeed… one that matched his alarming betting drift…
So not ideal, however Sunday is indeed another day and I’ll be set for the Sha Tin card.
Catch you then
Hutch
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SEASON 2018/19 FINAL TOTAL STATS UPDATE:
88
MEETINGS
2292.8
TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS
+239.8
UNITS (10.46% PROFIT)