1 HOT KING PRAWN (rp – $4.50): He is going in to this event in excellent form and unlike Aethero, he is far more reliable albeit probably not as talented. He maps to land in a good spot from the gate and if he holds his recent form then he has to go close to winning.

2 THANKS FOREVER (rp – $8.00): He had clear excuses on his last two runs and he can win this event. He was excellent against the race-shape when defeated by Hot King Prawn in the Chek Lap Kok Handicap, and then sat three-wide without cover and got into a bumping duel in The Sprint Cup. Even though he’s drawn poorly, he’s racing well and is capable of upsetting the favourites, particularly if the track is rain-affected.

3 MR STUNNING (rp – $21.00): He’s not the star sprinter that he was, but he hit the line very well in The Sprint Cup. He might have to settle for a minor spot again.

4 FULL OF BEAUTY (rp – $41): He has a bit to find on his recent efforts at this level. He is a five-time winner over the track and trip but arguably not quite up to the level required at this stage to win a race like this.

5 WISHFUL THINKER (rp – $151): He’s another horse that has a fair bit to find on his recent form. He does possess a terrific finish at his best, but looks held at the G1 sprinting level.

6 D B PIN (rp – $67): This is another ageing sprinter who has been well exposed at G1 level this season and has come up just short of what is required. I can’t see why this event will deliver a result that’s any different.

7 VOYAGE WARRIOR (rp – $11.00): He has won five of 10 career starts and delivered his biggest win to date when leading all the way in the Sprint Cup against most of these – albeit on a rain-affected track – so a case can be made for him to win again. That day the tempo and track pattern were in his favour and there’s some doubt as to the chances of getting a similar scenario this time.

8 BIG PARTY (rp – $51): He was far from disgraced when beaten two-lengths in the Sprint Cup, but arguably had his chance then. The cheek-pieces go on which might spark him and he maps to get his chance again.

9 BIG TIME BABY (rp – $81): He’s a talented sprinter who excels on the all-weather. On pure ratings (109), he has a bit to find but he’ll run an honest race as he usually does.

10 JOLLY BANNER (rp – $151): He’s outclassed at this level and has plenty to find.

11 AETHERO (rp – $2.35): He’s a bit hit and miss but obviously highly-talented. He was aggressively ridden in a recent trial and IF he jumps on terms, without interference, and leads, then I know he is good enough. Trainer John Moore acknowledges that he’s a “one-trick pony”, which makes the likely tactics with him transparent – lead!

The obvious key to this event is whether AETHERO jumps on terms on not. If he jumps, then he’ll lead and he will be very hard to run down. If one can get beyond $2.35 for him then I am happy to take the chance on him getting away on terms. He will also strip fitter for his last run and is on fresher legs than most. The safe play is HOT KING PRAWN, who maps to get a soft run on the back of the pace and should have every chance to win his first G1. His overall form is the most consistent of all runners here and was a touch unlucky at the top of the straight in the Sprint Cup. THANKS FOREVER is a definite contender. He has had clear excuses on his last two starts and from a wide gate, I expect that he might be backable on the tote, on the day. Thanks Forever will need luck, but if the leading contenders overdo things up front, then he could swoop and pick up the pieces late. VOYAGE WARRIOR was good last time, but had conditions to suit and might need similar conditions again, which most importantly, would require Aethero to miss the kick and get into trouble again. Whilst not a race I’d suggest any large outlays, Aethero will be the main play (but there’s no huge advantage there, with Thanks Forever a smaller one to win.