R9 CEDAR HANDICAP

Class 2 - 1800m


Happy Valley (M62) - Wednesday, 15 April 2020

22:50 HK TIME

summary


This is another open and competitive race with the main two runners I like here being HELENE CHARISMA and DANCES WITH DRAGON. The former was very unlucky on his last outing and his recent form has actually been a lot better than it looks on paper. He loves Happy Valley and with Blake Shinn on board, you will get a better price than if another leading jockey was aboard given Blake is striking around 3%. Dances With Dragon won very well indeed first-up for Caspar Fownes and there was nothing wrong with his effort on the sealed dirt track at his next outing. I like him coming back to the turf, but he will need some luck in the running from a wide gate. RELIABLE TEAM was a sound performer in the Hong Kong Derby, and is proven at this course. He has tactical speed and might be able to sit in a controlling position during the race, which is a positive. There will probably be some market support for ENRICHMENT and while his recent efforts have rated pretty well, I am far from convinced he is suited to Happy Valley. I would prefer to take a chance with Righteous Doctrine at a bigger price as I was suitably impressed by how well he won last start on the dirt.

selections


2 HELENE CHARISMA

(rp – $7.00)

9th

4 DANCES WITH DRAGON

(rp – $5.50)

1st @ $4.45 & $1.75 ($7.50 BC)

5 RELIABLE TEAM

(rp – $6.50)

8th

9 ENRICHMENT

(rp – $7.50)

2nd @ $1.65p (quinella with 4 @ $9.65)

11 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE

(rp – $18.00)

3rd @ $3.80p (trifecta/tierce with 4 & 9 @ $204.00)

strategy


2 HELENE CHARISMA

WIN (1.5 units)

4 DANCES WITH DRAGON

WIN (2.5 units)

speed


RELIABLE TEAM can control the speed with PRIVATE SECRETARY taking close order. DANCES WITH DRAGON could be asked to work forward from barrier 12 with AMAZING BEATS drawn to get a soft run following these horses. ENRICHMENT could be asked to punch forward from a wide draw also.

SEASON 2018/19 FINAL TOTAL STATS UPDATE:


88

MEETINGS

2292.8

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+239.8

UNITS (10.46% PROFIT)