This is a tough race, it’s as simple as that, but at least it is a tough race due to several entrants actually being in good form! There was no fluke about the win of SMOOTHIES on his third Hong Kong start as he led all of the way, and out of that race, third-placed Everyone’s Joy has since saluted. His Hong Kong debut at the city course was sound and he will go forward and I’d expect him to take some catching once again. FLASH FAMOUS is bidding for his fifth win of the season, but has to carry 5kg more weight and being drawn awkwardly will make it difficult for Moreira to find an economical position in the running. Talking of weight, HOLY HEART has top-weight of 60.5kg, which is up 2kg from his last run. He is racing well, but will need a few things to go right. There’s no doubt he can win, but seems too tight in the market to me. GREEN REIGN was a major play for us and although it wasn’t one of Moreira’s best, perhaps the 1200m is short enough for him. He leaves the impression the step up to a mile might be a positive, so he too looks a fair chance here. BEAR AGAIN is another decent chance; he has had excuses and could bounce back. I’m staying out of playing into this event, but use my prices accordingly.