R8 THE BMW HONG KONG DERBY 2020

4 Year Olds - 2000m


Sha Tin (M55) - Sunday, 22 March 2020

16:35 HK TIME

Runner-by-runner


1 GOLDEN SIXTY (rp – $2.60): This talented galloper has won 10 of his 11 career starts and will more than likely start a short-priced favourite for the feature. The concerns around his ability to stay the trip were put to bed in many respects when he powered to the line over 1800m in the Classic Cup so he deserves to be considered the horse to beat.

2 CHAMPION’S WAY (rp – $12.00): He had clear excuses against this opposition in the Classic Mile and was a brave when runner-up to Golden Sixty in the Classic Cup. Not sure if he will see out a strong 2000m, and he has a slightly awkward draw.

3 MORE THAN THIS (rp – $3.60): Has enjoyed a solid season and was defeated by Golden Sixty last time when he made an early move. The barrier draws favours him and Zac Purton riding in a Group 1 are both major positives. He will need a little luck in running with overall tempo and getting clear at the right time, but can turn the tables on his stablemate Golden Sixty and Champion’s Way.

4 DECRYPT (rp – $81): He steps up markedly in trip and was solid over 1400m when runner-up to Super Wealthy. He’s untested over this distance, but was placed in the Irish 2000 Guineas over 1600m. He races and seems bred for shorter trips.

5 PRIVATE SECRETARY (rp – $51): He looked promising after his win on his Hong Kong debut, but he was well held behind Golden Sixty last time and has a bit to find.

6 PLAYA DEL PUENTE (rp – $151): His only Hong Kong win was after finding a soft lead over the Valley mile and he needs to improve considerably to feature.

7 COLUMBUS COUNTY (rp – $17.00): All of his Hong Kong runs have contained merit and he was narrowly defeated over this course and distance last time. He has a little bit to find on ratings, but I expect that he shouldn’t be far away in the finish and he maps nicely.

8 SUPER OASIS (rp – $41): He wasn’t beaten far by Amazing Beats last start, but seems to be running similar races time and again and a minor place seems more likely at best.

9 BUTTERFIELD (rp – $13.00): He’s a last-start winner that has taken a different path to many others here. He has the ability to settle on-pace and will definitely be overs in this event. He had the pace in his favour last time but can surprise.

10 STAR PERFORMANCE (rp – $251): He’s has a mixed preparation and it would be a major shock if he figured in the finish.

11 AMAZING BEATS (rp – $51): He was $21 when defeating Columbus County last time over 2000m and maps to get a similar run. Needs to find another couple of lengths in order to threaten main chances.

12 RELIABLE TEAM (rp – $151): He’s a handy galloper who should stay the journey in many respects, but has a bit to find on ratings. He should settle on the pace, or even lead, but he lacks some class.

13 SAVVY NINE (rp – $251): His overall form hasn’t been good enough.

14 WORLD FAMOUS (rp – $41): He can lead and has posted a couple of good numbers in recent starts. He will be a lot bigger in the market than he probably should be.

summary


GOLDEN SIXTY has been the dominant force in this 4-Year-Old series and is a deserved favourite on the back of some highly impressive performances. His electric turn-of-foot is a potent weapon and the manner in which he drew clear over 1800m in the Classic Cup would suggest he is the one to beat up in trip again. The barrier is far from ideal though, and he will need luck in running from there, as he is likely to get back. I can’t get him as short as the market will have him. The barrier draw for the Derby really favours MORE THAN THIS, who should relish the move up in distance and with a better map and more economical path; he might be the best play in the race on an each-way basis. Zac Purton discussed this when I interviewed him, that he is going to revert to riding More Than This a touch more patiently. CHAMPION’S WAY might be a query over this trip, but Size’s method of peaking a horse for this race has worked before. A couple of solid value chances at bigger prices are COLUMBUS COUNTY and BUTTERFIELD. The former should have no trouble over this trip, but he does need to find a couple of lengths on his performances thus far. He should be peaking though this time. BUTTERFIELD was game when winning last time over 1800m and I like the fact he can settle closer to the lead even though he’s drawn wide. I’m happy backing More Than This primarily here and having a small each way on Butterfield.

selections


3 MORE THAN THIS

(rp – $3.60)

3rd @ $1.15p

1 GOLDEN SIXTY

(rp – $2.60)

1st @ $1.75 & $1.20 ($2.30 BC)

9 BUTTERFIELD

(rp – $13.00)

6th

7 COLUMBUS COUNTY

(rp – $17.00)

9th

strategy


3 MORE THAN THIS

WIN (4 units)

9 BUTTERFIELD

WIN & PLACE (0.5 unit x 1 units)

speed


RELIABLE TEAM can go forward here from WORLD FAMOUS, PLAYA DEL PUENTE and BUTTERFIELD. I don’t expect that the overall speed will be faster than GOOD, in fact it’s likely to be on the SLOW side. SUPER OASIS can track the leaders and MORE THAN THIS won’t be far from them either. I expect GOLDEN SIXTY to be taken back from his draw and for Moreira to try and slow CHAMPION’S WAY in around midfield.


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