best selections and strategies


Sha Tin (M63) - Sunday, 14 April 2019

29 units Strategy

best outlay


RACE 11

4 CHAMPION’S WAY (rp – $2.00) 

WIN (8 units)

CHAMPION’S WAY is the best on the card and even though he is drawn wide, if Moreira can secure cover in a three-wide position I expect him to remain unbeaten. The 1400m distance should suit him and even if the tempo is slow he should be in the right position to overcome this.

Result: 1st @ $2.10 best corporate (+8.8 units)

NEXT BEST OUTLAYS


RACE 9

12 MR CROISSANT (rp – $6.00)

WIN (2.5 units) PLACE (5 units)

4 & 12 

QUINELLA (1.5 units)

Whilst BIG PARTY is clearly the horse to beat here, MR CROISSANT shouldn’t be as big in the early market as he is. He maps well and I expect him to be up to this class of horse after an impressive win last start. Take a quinella with the two of them and go each way with Mr Croissant.

Result: 1st @ $6.00 & $2.00 best corporate (+12.5 units)(+5 units) + 5th (-1.5 units) -> (+16 units)

RACE 8

10 CHARIZARD (rp – $4.20)

WIN (3.5 units)

6 ALCARI (rp – $4.80) 

WIN (3 units)

There are two horses at good prices to back here. CHARIZARD has been pretty good through out his developing career and his last win rated well-enough for here, especially given he now has a light weight to carry. This is significant as there isn’t much of him and he might go to another level here. ALCARI maps well and after a strong effort behind Champion’s Way last time he can be in the finish.

Result: 3rd (-3.5 units) + 4th (-3 units) -> (-6.5 units)

RACE 6

2 BINGO (rp – $3.80) 

WIN (4 units)

BINGO might be able to replicate his last start and if he can then he’s clearly a better chance than his early price suggests. It’ll be up to Alfred Chan to rate him well and then for the weight allowance to have its effect.

Result: 9th (-4 units)

each way outlay


RACE 10

12 TRAVEL FIRST (rp – $18.00) 

WIN (0.5 unit) PLACE (1 unit)

TRAVEL FIRST is worth a small each way outlay here on the basis that he should lead without much pressure and it seems the market have him pegged as a dirt horse. Whilst he is more effective on that surface, he’s run okay before on turf and is a bet to nothing at a huge price.

Result: 11th (-0.5 units)(-1 units) -> (-1.5 units)

Overall result for 29 units strategy


+12.8 UNITS  (44% PROFIT)

The heavy rain during the Sha Tin program really influenced the track, it was a huge advantage to be racing close to the rail and on the speed.

Have Fun Together ran an enormous race all things considered. He missed the kick by a couple of lengths before getting held up at the top of the straight, and made huge ground late and wide on the track.

Superich was brilliant and he looks a galloper with a lot of promise. He maintained a wide run and was powerful through the line. Noble Steed also did a good job to finish second, he’s got points in hand for the new season.

Shining On and Sunshine Holiday never really got into the race given how the track played.

So that brings to an end season 2017/18. Congratulations to John Size, Champion Trainer and Zac Purton, Champion Jockey for their achievements through out the term. It will certainly be a different landscape with Joao Moreira leaving to Japan and I look forward to unlocking plenty of winners factoring-in next season’s crop of jockeys!

Thanks for following Hutchi’s Honkers through out Hong Kong season 2017/18! It was satisfying to turn a seasonal profit, that was the goal and even though it wasn’t large, for bigger players who are able to earn rebates via their respective agencies, it’s been significant.

Cheers