R5 SEVERN HANDICAP

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Sha Tin (M61) - Sunday, 7 April 2019

15:00 HK TIME

summary


This looks a pretty thin race in many respects. The two runners I am mainly interested in are GOLDEN FOUR and SPEEDY DRAGON. Each will need a touch of luck and tempo to suit, but their respective recent form has been solid and I do see the race being run at genuine speed. Golden Four was shuffled back at a key stage last time but was still a shade disappointing, however, his two runs prior have him rate clear of this field. Speedy Dragon might get a nice run on the back of the speed, with the main query being the step up to1400m. He’s failed twice over 1400m, which is of some concern as on both occasions he sat in the trail and only battled when well-supported by the market. GUY DRAGON was well-backed on his last outing and it was a solid win, although there wasn’t much depth to the opposition he met that day. PLAY WISE drops back in trip and Zac Purton sticks with him, which must give one some confidence. Play Wise maps well from the draw, but has just come up so short early in betting. FUN TIMES has the blinkers applied and he hasn’t been far away in recent starts, including a finishing within two lengths of Guy Dragon last time (race 481). I don’t want to be outlaying much here, but very small outlays on a couple shaping up at reasonable prices is the plan here.

selections


4 GOLDEN FOUR

(rp – $5.50)

5th

3 SPEEDY DRAGON

(rp – $7.50)

4th

1 GUY DRAGON

(rp – $7.50)

2nd @ $2.20p

2 PLAY WISE

(rp – $7.00)

6th

12 FUN TIMES

(rp – $9.00)

10th

strategy


4 GOLDEN FOUR

WIN (small units)

3 SPEEDY DRAGON

WIN (smaller units)

speed


There’s a decent amount of speed on paper here with GOOD COMPANION, CARE FREE PRINCE and DRAGON DANCE contesting the lead positions. FORTUNATE RUNNER might be asked to go forward from barrier 13 from FUN TIMES and SPEEDY DRAGON.