R2 SEVERN HANDICAP

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Sha Tin (M61) - Sunday, 7 April 2019

13:30 HK TIME

summary


There is not a great deal of pace in this event but the two up-and-coming runners; EZRA and WIN WIN, appear clearly the two main chances. Each runner has the blinkers on for the first time and the gear change is a positive for both of them. The slight preference is for Ezra who arguably should have won his last start race where he was forced to change course late in the event before just failing to land the prize. Monica also ran well in that race (462) after settling in a rearward position and if he settles closer here from barrier 4 as he initially did at his last start, then he should be thereabouts. Win Win has finished second to the highly progressive Band Of Brothers and has shown enough potential from a handful of starts to suggest he is ready to win. He’ll just need a little bit of luck and/or Purton skill from a tricky draw. BRAVE COMMAND is another horse that has upside and he maps nicely from a low barrier. He will relish the move up to 1,400m, and given his final-200m (11.28) was the fourth-best posted at the Happy Valley meeting on March 20, he too warrants respect. Ezra is the main win bet here with a smaller outlay on Brave Command warranted.

selections


7 EZRA

(rp – $2.60)

5th

4 WIN WIN

(rp – $3.80)

1st @ $3.10 & $1.30

10 BRAVE COMMAND

(rp – $7.00)

7th

6 MONICA

(rp – $8.00)

3rd @ $2.70

strategy


7 EZRA

WIN (6 units)

10 BRAVE COMMAND

WIN (1.5 units)

speed


There isn’t a great deal of speed on paper here and MONICA can lead. With the blinkers on EZRA can find a position outside the leader from BRAVE COMMAND and WIN WIN likely to be close to the front few horses in the running.