R3 GERANIUM HANDICAP

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Sha Tin (M53) - Sunday, 10 March 2019

13:30 HK TIME

summary


GOLDEN FOUR has been holding his form well and if he can find a position close to the lead from a favourable draw this time around then he should prove hard to beat. His last two runs have rated well enough to beat this opposition and with the potential for a genuine tempo with Sky Treasure making the running, he should be working home strongly. A strong tempo arguably took its toll on CHAIRMAN LO when he last raced and overall he has been a beaten favourite on his last three starts. He clearly peaked on his run (12th-ranked final-200m in that race) last time but it was a sound effort, although he might well be too short in the market again and therefore an unattractive betting proposition. Zac Purton rides Chairman Lo ahead of SEVENTY SEVENTY who he was aboard in a recent trial, which was fair work, but his fresh form seems his best. There might be one worth playing at bigger odds here, LITTLE GENERAL. He was dragged back last time; hampered in the straight, but closed well-enough given what had transpired during the race. This will be his fourth career start, he should appreciate the step up to 1400m and hopefully (for backers) he can settle closer from the draw. For that reason, whilst Golden Four is the horse to beat, I’m happy having a small outlay on Little General on an each way basis.

selections


3 GOLDEN FOUR

(rp – $3.20)

4th

2 CHAIRMAN LO

(rp – $6.00)

2nd @ $1.55p

4 LITTLE GENERAL

(rp – $12.00)

10th

1 SEVENTY SEVENTY

(rp – $8.50)

9th

strategy


4 LITTLE GENERAL

WIN & PLACE (small units, e.g. 0.5 x 1)

speed


With SKY TREASURE in the race I expect the tempo to be on the SLOW side of GOOD, but with not much else in the race with early speed, no faster than that. CHATER THUNDER, GOLDEN FOUR and TRAVEL SUCCESSOR can sit close to the ‘front-end’ during the running.

SEASON 2018/19 FINAL TOTAL STATS UPDATE:


88

MEETINGS

2292.8

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+239.8

UNITS (10.46% PROFIT)