R4 JAFFE HANDICAP

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Happy Valley (M52) - Wednesday, 6 March 2019

20:45 HK TIME

summary


NABOO STAR is clearly the horse to beat in the fourth race. He simply should have won his last outing when he was badly held-up before launching late – he looked a good thing beaten. He maps nicely once more tonight and with even luck, he will be the hardest to beat. Zac Purton rode him last time but sticks with the last start winner HAPPY WARRIOR, who has drawn the outside gate. The horse still has some upside and with a more patient ride, there’s every chance he could win again with a touch of luck. Speaking of luck, with a little from his barrier, FORTUNATE RUNNER can be right in this. He comes through some strong form races and deserves to be shorter in the market than he looks to be early on. If he can work forward and sit handy with some cover then he can be in the fight late in the race. MR DARTHVEGAR should appreciate coming up in distance on his third career start and is one to consider, while DIAMOND LEGEND remains in solid form and he hit the line very well over the unsuitable 1,200m on his last outing. I’m happy to be with Naboo Star here primarily, taking quinellas with Happy Warrior and Fortunate Runner.

selections


4 NABOO STAR

(rp – $3.80)

3rd @ $1.60p

5 HAPPY WARRIOR

(rp – $5.00)

2nd @ $1.40p

3 FORTUNATE RUNNER

(rp – $8.50)

10th

11 DIAMOND LEGEND

(rp – $9.00)

4th

8 MR DARTHVEGAR

(rp – $12.00)

8th

strategy


4 NABOO STAR

WIN (3.5 units)

4 with 5

QUINELLA (1 unit)

4 with 3

QUINELLA (0.5 unit)

speed


The pace should be at least GOOD here. CURLING LUXURY can work to the lead with MISTER MONTE and LITTLE ISLAND also pace influences. FORTUNATE RUNNER and NABOO STAR will likely be in competition for the perfect spot following these horses.

SEASON 2018/19 FINAL TOTAL STATS UPDATE:


88

MEETINGS

2292.8

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+239.8

UNITS (10.46% PROFIT)