best selections and strategies


Happy Valley (M52) - Wednesday, 6 March 2019

23 units Strategy

best outlay


RACE 3

9 GIFT OF LIFELINE (rp – $3.20) 

WIN (5 units)

GIFT OF LIFELINE comes from my Sweet In Defeat reviews when he sprinted some excellent closing sectionals last start behind E Master. He looks progressive, is drawn well and appears ready to win now. De Sousa seems to be Tony Millard’s ‘go to’ rider when he wants a result – they have five wins and five minor placings together from 19 runners this term.

Result: 1st @ $5.20 (+21 units)

NEXT BEST OUTLAYS


RACE 4

4 NABOO STAR (rp – $3.80)

WIN (3.5 units) 

4 with 5 

QUINELLA (1 unit) 

4 with 3 

QUINELLA (0.5 unit)

Last start NABOO STAR should have been victorious but for some horrendous luck and an opposition rider intent on playing the horse not the race. Whilst Purton has chosen to stay with Happy Warrior (who is a great chance in his own right), with even luck Naboo Star should break through. FORTUNATE RUNNER is worth including in a quinella with Naboo Star as well.

Results: 3rd (-3.5 units) + 2nd (-1 unit) + 10th (-0.5 unit) -> (-5 units)

RACE 6

4 HELENE CHARISMA (rp – $3.40)

WIN (4 units)

4 with 9 

QUINELLA (1 unit)

Whilst HELENE CHARISMA has had plenty of chances to win in Hong Kong, he signaled last time that he’s close to shaking any ‘gunner’ tag. He was unlucky with Whyte aboard, Purton takes over and I expect him to fight out the finish with VIGOR FAME.

Results: 1st @ $3.00 best corporate (+8 units) + 2nd Quinella @ $7.45 (+6.45 units) -> (+14.45 units)

RACE 7

8 E MASTER (rp – $7.50)

WIN (2 units) 

9 GALLANT RETURN (rp – $8.00)

WIN (2 units) 

8 with 4, 7, 9, 10 

QUINELLA (0.5 units each, 2 total)

9 with 4, 7, 8, 10 

QUINELLA (0.5 units each, 2 total)

This is race is very competitive on paper and there are two horses in particular that are great prices worth specking, E MASTER and GALLANT RETURN. Where they map isn’t ideal and probably contributes to their big early quotes, but they can overcome this with some sharp riding.

Results: 10th (-2 units) & 6th (-2 units) (-4 units) -> (-8 units) 

Overall result for 23 units strategy


+22.45 UNITS  (97.6% PROFIT)

*UPDATE – EXTRA HONG KONG DERBY OUTLAY

I was incredibly impressed by how WAIKUKU won on Saturday and he looks like he should be Hong Kong Derby favourite to me. He’s available at more than $3.50+ in futures around various corporates and even though the race is on the 17th of March and barriers are still to be drawn I assess him close to an even-money chance. So lock in the $3.50+ now if you can.

HONG KONG DERBY: WAIKUKU – WIN (10 units)

SEASON 2018/19 FINAL TOTAL STATS UPDATE:


88

MEETINGS

2292.8

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+239.8

UNITS (10.46% PROFIT)