R8 THE MERLION HANDICAP

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Sha Tin (M51) - Saturday, 2 March 2019

16:35 HK TIME

summary


There is a horse that I like the chances of here at a good early price, BETTER CHOICE. Although he was suited by the solid tempo last time he hit the line stylishly behind Tornado Twist with a race-best final-200m (11.24), which was in fact the best closing sectional of the entire meeting. He should strip a little fitter for the run and to my assessment is the horse to beat. KARI FARASI gets the apprentice’s claim following his last victory and whilst he had a dream run on that occasion, with the claim he effectively isn’t significantly penalised for the win for today’s assignment (0.5kg more to carry) – the “penalty” though is Zac Purton isn’t his rider. MIGHTY MAVERICK had a torrid run in transit behind Happy Force but boxed on well, however, he has once again drawn a bad gate. He wasn’t far off Better Choice on his prior run, so a case can be made for him to run well. Young Legend has some upside and the booking of Purton is positive although with the leading rider on board he will come up short enough in the market. Better Choice will need a slice of luck from barrier 10 and a genuine speed set through out, but the latter looks likely and I’m happy to outlay on him ‘each way’.

selections


12 BETTER CHOICE

(rp – $4.50)

4th

2 KASI FARASI

(rp – $5.50)

1st @ $3.55 & $1.50

10 YOUNG LEGEND

(rp – $6.50)

3rd @ $1.85p

8 MIGHTY MAVERICK

(rp – $9.00)

5th

strategy


12 BETTER CHOICE

WIN & PLACE (2 x 4)

speed


I expect a GOOD speed to be set here with LAND GRANT, HIGH VOLATILITY and TRAVEL FIRST a trio of horses that possess early speed. There might be some jockeying of positions behind them with KASI FARASI, YOUNG LEGEND and MIGHTY MAVERICK all horses that won’t want to get too far off the leaders.

SEASON 2018/19 FINAL TOTAL STATS UPDATE:


88

MEETINGS

2292.8

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+239.8

UNITS (10.46% PROFIT)