ANALYSIS – Saturday, 2 March 2019

best selections and strategies

Sha Tin (M51) - Saturday, 2 March 2019

Best Bets HH Live Race 1 Race 2 Race 3 Race 4 Race 5 Race 6 Race 7 Race 8 Race 9 Race 10

29 units Strategy

best outlay

RACE 5

1 PRINCE OF GEMS (rp – $2.50)

WIN (6 units)

1 with 5

QUINELLA (2 units)

I was suitably impressed with PRINCE OF GEMS when he won on debut and he should be able to improve again having had the run even though he has to carry more weight today. He’s drawn well for Purton to give him every chance. He meets a decent field though and BEAUTY APPLAUSE is a Size first starter that promotes a lot of interest. He looks like he has plenty of ability and can run well.

Results: 6th (-6 units) + 4th (-2 units) -> (-8 units)

NEXT BEST OUTLAYS

RACE 7

3 THRILLED (rp – $3.00)

WIN (4.5 units)

THRILLED had to absorb a bit of pressure on debut and even though he ran fourth I thought the run had huge merit. With natural improvement, he rates very highly in a field that lacks depth so I expect he’ll break through in Hong Kong today.

Result: 12th (bled) (-4.5 units)

RACE 4

14 SAVVY SEVEN (rp – $4.40)

WIN (3 units)

7 FLAME LILY (rp – $4.60)

WIN (3 units)

SAVVY SEVEN and FLAME LILY present as leading chances in this race and as a result of PERFECT PAIR coming up short early on, this presents an opportunity to back both horses at good enough prices. There’s enough speed in the race overall, with Savvy Seven and Flame Lily likely to receive economical runs close to the rail just behind the speed.

Results: 7th (-3 units) + 3rd (-3 units) -> (-6 units)

Each way outlays

RACE 8

12 BETTER CHOICE (rp – $4.50)

WIN (2 units) PLACE (4 units)

I was most impressed by the way BETTER CHOICE hit the line last start. Following a small break between races he showed he was well and very capable of being able to win in Class 3. A genuine tempo will suit him and he can power over the top of the field late in the race.

Result: 4th (-2 units)(-4 units) -> (-6 units)

RACE 9

6 CHARITY GO (rp -$5.50)

WIN (1.5 unit) PLACE (3 units)

I have a lot of respect for WAIKUKU as a horse and leading Hong Kong Derby chance, but for this race today, would rather have a small ticket on CHARITY GO. He should be able to sit on the speed and given he didn’t wilt like maybe he was entitled to do last start, with less pressure expected here, he can be in the fight for a long way.

Result: 11th (-1.5 units)(-3 units) -> (-4.5 units)

Overall result for 29 units strategy

-29 UNITS (100% LOSS)

The heavy rain during the Sha Tin program really influenced the track, it was a huge advantage to be racing close to the rail and on the speed.

Have Fun Together ran an enormous race all things considered. He missed the kick by a couple of lengths before getting held up at the top of the straight, and made huge ground late and wide on the track.

Superich was brilliant and he looks a galloper with a lot of promise. He maintained a wide run and was powerful through the line. Noble Steed also did a good job to finish second, he’s got points in hand for the new season.

Shining On and Sunshine Holiday never really got into the race given how the track played.

So that brings to an end season 2017/18. Congratulations to John Size, Champion Trainer and Zac Purton, Champion Jockey for their achievements through out the term. It will certainly be a different landscape with Joao Moreira leaving to Japan and I look forward to unlocking plenty of winners factoring-in next season’s crop of jockeys!

Thanks for following Hutchi’s Honkers through out Hong Kong season 2017/18! It was satisfying to turn a seasonal profit, that was the goal and even though it wasn’t large, for bigger players who are able to earn rebates via their respective agencies, it’s been significant.

Cheers

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