R1 BUTTERFLY HANDICAP

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Sha Tin (M49) - Sunday, 24 February 2019

13:00 HK TIME

summary


This is a pretty even race, but the drop in class is a significant bonus for BINGO HEROwho stayed on nicely on his last outing when fourth to Splendour And Gold over the track and trip. The barrier (9) and his lack of gate speed could be a little issue for him, but he is less exposed than most and can notch his first win today if he can repeat his recent runs. SUNNY ORIENTwas a touch unlucky when held-up on his last outing and his last two runs have contained a fair amount of merit. He is a 28-start Hong Kong maiden, but with better luck today from a middle draw he can go close. PADDINGTONmight get a softer time up on speed in this event and although the 1,400m is a definite query, if he isn’t forced to work too hard in the lead then he can run well. The way I’ve mapped the race there doesn’t look like there’ll be much pressure on paper, mind you, this seems clear which might mean many connections will try to change tactics as a result. NEVER BETTERhas won one from 44 and his “get back” race pattern is a big factor in that strike rate, but he has been threatening in recent starts and close to a win. Nonetheless, he is capable of figuring in the finish. I’m happy to outlay small here, mainly on Bingo Hero, but Paddington looks a huge price and something needs to go on him to win.

selections


1 BINGO HERO

(rp – $4.00)

11th

11 SUNNY ORIENT

(rp – $5.00)

5th

13 PADDINGTON

(rp – $9.00)

9th

6 NEVER BETTER

(rp – $8.00)

2nd @ $2.40p

strategy


1 BINGO HERO

WIN (small units)

13 PADDINGTON

WIN (smaller units)

speed


There doesn’t appear to be much speed on paper here and PADDINGTON might be able to lead even though drawn the widest. BEST EFFORT, DARING HEART and FLYING NOBLE are other horses that are capable of taking up prominent positions early.

SEASON 2018/19 FINAL TOTAL STATS UPDATE:


88

MEETINGS

2292.8

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+239.8

UNITS (10.46% PROFIT)