ANALYSIS – Sunday, 24 February 2019

best selections and strategies

Sha Tin (M49) - Sunday, 24 February 2019

Best Bets HH Live Race 1 Race 2 Race 3 Race 4 Race 5 Race 6 Race 7 Race 8 Race 9 Race 10

17 units Strategy

best outlays

RACE 6

3 I DO (rp – $1.80)

WIN (6 units)

3 with 1 & 12

QUINELLA (0.5 unit each, 1 unit total)

On a day that is ‘thin’ for being confident on many individual chances and finding much value before markets take shape, I believe I DO is the best bet overall. He should be able to secure one of the runs of the race and break through for his first win today under Zac Purton. SUNNY POWER and DASHING DART can perform better than market expectation and I’m happy to take part-unit quinellas with these.

Results: 1st @ $2.25 (+7.5 units) + 8th & 2nd, quinella @ $16.00 (+7 units) -> (+14.5 units)

NEXT BEST OUTLAYS

RACE 2

4 TIME TO CELEBRATE (rp – $1.80)

WIN (5 units)

Where TIME TO CELEBRATE rates compared to the five other horses in this race has him well clear. Whilst the tempo overall isn’t likely to be fast, this should allow Purton to be where he wants and move in a timely fashion to win.

Result: 1st @ $2.30 best corporate (+6.5 units)

RACE 7

12 REFINED TREASURE (rp – $2.50)

WIN (3 units)

Going off his best numbers REFINED TREASURE should be too good for this field given his light weight. That said, he’s had issues so to suggest he’s at his best is a small leap of faith. I’ve taken this into account somewhat with his rated price and he still looks a worthwhile ‘speck bet’ at his price.

Result: 1st @ $2.80 best corporate (+5.4 units)

RACE 5

14 JIN JIN KING (rp – $8.00)

WIN (1 unit)

2 VIVA COUNCIL (rp – $9.00)

WIN (1 unit)

Betting into these all-weather track races can be fraught with danger given the biases that can come into play, however JIN JIN KING and VIVA COUNCIL come from my Sweet In Defeat reviews having run well on pace at their last starts. They have drawn wide, which isn’t ideal, but with any sort of luck working across the field they can surprise the market.

Result: 14th (-1 unit) & 8th (-1 unit) -> (-2 units)

Overall result for 17 units strategy

+24.4 UNITS (144% PROFIT)

The heavy rain during the Sha Tin program really influenced the track, it was a huge advantage to be racing close to the rail and on the speed.

Have Fun Together ran an enormous race all things considered. He missed the kick by a couple of lengths before getting held up at the top of the straight, and made huge ground late and wide on the track.

Superich was brilliant and he looks a galloper with a lot of promise. He maintained a wide run and was powerful through the line. Noble Steed also did a good job to finish second, he’s got points in hand for the new season.

Shining On and Sunshine Holiday never really got into the race given how the track played.

So that brings to an end season 2017/18. Congratulations to John Size, Champion Trainer and Zac Purton, Champion Jockey for their achievements through out the term. It will certainly be a different landscape with Joao Moreira leaving to Japan and I look forward to unlocking plenty of winners factoring-in next season’s crop of jockeys!

Thanks for following Hutchi’s Honkers through out Hong Kong season 2017/18! It was satisfying to turn a seasonal profit, that was the goal and even though it wasn’t large, for bigger players who are able to earn rebates via their respective agencies, it’s been significant.

Cheers

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