R3 KWAI CHUNG HANDICAP

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Happy Valley (M48) - Wednesday, 20 February 2019

20:15 HK TIME

summary


There are a couple of the leading contenders in this race that aren’t drawn well and will therefore need their share of luck, so this might open up an opportunity to “shop around” and consider backing a horse like DRAGON DANCE. He had “blood in trachea” when he last competed a month ago, but his form prior to that outing was solid and importantly he will either lead or settle on the pace. He is often vulnerable late over 1200m, but hopefully he can last as he looks to have come up at very reasonable odds. LIGHTNING TREASURE posted some excellent closing sectionals at his last outing but his inability to take a better position in the running is a huge concern. However, should he get that better run in transit, he could figure in the finish. ABSOLUCOOL has shown glimpses of potential this season but this is his first crack at Happy Valley, however much like Lightning Treasure if he can settle closer than normal that will aid his chances. GOOD COMPANION comes through a good rating race won by Champion’s Way and with Purton on board should be kept safe. Zac has only had three rides for Jimmy Ting for two wins. I expect DIAMOND LEGEND to be working home strongly once again, but Happy Valley just doesn’t seem as ideal for him as Sha Tin even though he’s won at both tracks. Dragon Dance is worth an each way ticket here though.

selections


11 DRAGON DANCE

(rp – $5.50)

12th

7 LIGHTNING TREASURE

(rp – $6.00)

8th

3 GOOD COMPANION

(rp – $6.50)

6th

8 ABSOLUCOOL

(rp – $8.00)

5th

strategy


11 DRAGON DANCE

WIN & PLACE (e.g. 1 x 2)

speed


The pace should be genuine enough with DRAGON DANCE likely to be ridden to lead from GOOD COMPANION. ROMAN ODYSSEY and ROYAL CHOCOLATE are others that should be asked to go forward early.

SEASON 2018/19 FINAL TOTAL STATS UPDATE:


88

MEETINGS

2292.8

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+239.8

UNITS (10.46% PROFIT)