R5 SING WOO HANDICAP

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Happy Valley (M46) - Wednesday, 13 February 2019

20:45 HK TIME

summary


This is a very competitive event. The booking of Zac Purton on HAPPY DRAGON will ensure he will be solid in the market and following his impressive win over the Valley mile two starts back, he was given a strange ride from De Sousa last time, but still ran well. He can win but looks shorter than he should be in betting. The reality is that there isn’t much between a number of runners in this event accordingly to my assessment and ratings. HARMONY Hero is more than capable off his best figures to win this event and he should get ta soft trip about midfield during the race. When he’s right he has a devastating sprint, it’s just a case of handling the Valley. LUCKY GIRL was brave on-speed when battling away last time but would be better served in a race where he can dictate the pace on his terms. With CHEERFUL BOY in the race, this is unlikely. NITRO EXPRESS might get the race run to suit and can get into the finish going off his best form, while CHEERFUL STAR showed some improvement last time and might be a value chance. Overall though, this is a really tough race. I’m ‘kicking for touch’ somewhat by nominating Harmony Hero as an each way outlay as there are four that look overs off early prices, but I simply don’t want to back them all and outlay too much into an event I’m not confident about.

selections


3 HAPPY DRAGON

(rp – $4.50)

1st @ $2.25 & $1.35 ($2.30 best corporate)

2 HARMONY HERO

(rp – $6.00)

3rd @ $1.75p

7 LUCKY GIRL

(rp – $8.00)

7th

11 NITRO EPXRESS

(rp – $11.00)

11th

6 CHEERFUL STAR

(rp – $14.00)

10th

strategy


2 HARMONY HERO

WIN & PLACE

speed


The pace looks like it will be on the SLOW side of GOOD on paper with CHEERFUL BOY not getting much pressure in the lead from LUCKY GIRL. VIGOR FAME might work forward from PING HAI TREASURE. The pace isn’t overly easy to determine though – it’s a potentially messy map and therefore race.

SEASON 2018/19 FINAL TOTAL STATS UPDATE:


88

MEETINGS

2292.8

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+239.8

UNITS (10.46% PROFIT)