R5 LILY HANDICAP

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Sha Tin (M45) - Sunday, 10 February 2019

15:10 HK TIME

summary


This will be the second start that EMPIRE STAR has for John Moore and this time he has opted to book Joao Moreira, which is a positive. Empire Star was sound placing third behind Care Free Prince last time, with Picken finishing just ahead of him. Of course given Picken scored earlier this week this lends some credence to the strength of the form. Empire Star moves up to the mile and might be ready to shrug the maiden tag that he still holds after 20 starts. If the pace is strong (which is less likely following the scratching of Curling Luxury) then it might be worth giving FLASH FAMOUS another chance after he ran in to a dead end last time. SUNNY POWER comes through some races that have rated well, but with top weight it won’t be easy although he gets a drop in grade back to Class 4. ROMANTIC CHEF is another that appears to have plenty of upside, but he is resuming after a mid-season freshen-up. He is an on-pace runner that is better off with Curling Luxury not running but looks a tight price in early betting. All in all, it’s a tough race, but a small win outlay on Empire Star is where I’m leaning. Monitor prices as Flash Famous could be worth a small outlay also.

selections


8 EMPIRE STAR

(rp – $3.50)

5th

3 FLASH FAMOUS

(rp – $8.00)

2nd @ $2.95p

2 ROMANTIC CHEF

(rp – $4.50)

3rd @ $1.40p

1 SUNNY POWER

(rp – $6.00)

7th

strategy


8 EMPIRE STAR

WIN (small units)

3 FLASH FAMOUS

WIN (smaller units)

speed


HINYUEN SWIFTNESS and ROMANTIC CHEF are the two most likely leaders here with MEGATRON possessing some speed also. EMPIRE STAR maps ideally behind this trio with WINWIN RUBY likely to secure a rails position close to Empire Star.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)