R1 AZALEA HANDICAP

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Sha Tin (M45) - Sunday, 10 February 2019

13:00 HK TIME

summary


A low-grade race kicks off proceedings but one of them has to win and that might be M REBORN who returns to the course and distance of his maiden win six weeks ago. His previous effort over the track and trip was a narrow defeat and he looks the horse to beat, when one considers he had subsequent winner Diamond Legend covered quite convincingly (Race 292). A better barrier might offset the extra 4kg he has to carry. I made a bit of a case for GREAT SON prior to his last run and although he didn’t live up to the heavy market support, he still posted the third-best final-400m (22.88) of the meeting and left the impression that the step up to 1,200m at Sha Tin will suit. NASHASHUK competed in the same race and he had “blood in the trachea” so there were genuine excuses, although it is hard to know what he will do from a wide gate this time. Of the remainder, PADDINGTON is holding his form relatively well while COUR VALANT shouldn’t be far away off his ‘rock-bottom’ rating. M Reborn can win again and is the main win play, whilst Great Son is also worth a small outlay too.

selections


5 M REBORN

(rp – $2.50)

4th

8 GREAT SON

(rp – $6.50)

2nd @ $2.65p

3 NASHASHUK

(rp – $10.00)

6th

11 PADDINGTON

(rp – $12.00)

3rd @ $3.25p

strategy


5 M REBORN

WIN (main units)

8 GREAT SON

WIN (small units)

speed


The overall pace should be GOOD here with SOCCER BRAVE the leader from GOBI STORM and ROCHFORD. PADDINGTON is drawn to get one of the runs of the race.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)