R3 RED PACKET HANDICAP

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Sha Tin (M44) - Thursday, 7 February 2019

13:30 HK TIME

summary


This is an event that I can’t say I’ll be getting involved in; it’s of a poor standard. SUNNY ORIENT returns to Sha Tin following a Happy Valley run that suggested he might not be far away from his first local win. That night in a 1200m race (376) he sprinted home in a race-best 34.62 last-600m suggesting he was well and ready for 1400m today. FIRE AND GOLD drops in grade and at times has performed to a level that’d be more than good enough to win this Class 5. Whilst a failure twice over 1400m earlier in his career, in this grade today he’ll get his chance. NATURAL FLARE has been a money-muncher and a slight freshen-up should suit him. I’m not sure how much heart he has, but he often performs like he could win a Class 4 race, let alone a weak Class 5. John Moore has persevered with SMART ROCKET so this indicates he believes he can get a win out of it. He’s drawn wide, which for a horse like him who will settle back anyway isn’t a major, although the expected lack of tempo overall isn’t ideal. I’m staying out here, but use my prices accordingly if you wish to outlay.

selections


9 SUNNY ORIENT

(rp – $4.50)

4th

1 FIRE AND GOLD

(rp – $5.50)

8th

2 NATURAL FLARE

(rp – $7.00)

3rd @ $1.40p

3 SMART ROCKET

(rp – $9.00)

1st @ $28.70 & $6.85 ($31 best corporate)

strategy


NO OUTLAY RECOMMENDED

use prices accordingly.

speed


TRIUMPHANT LIGHT looks the natural leader from SCARBOROUGH FAIR. MASSIVE MOVE can work into a forward position from barrier 10, whilst OTOUTO and NATURAL FLARE can travel just behind these horses.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)