R10 GOOD FORTUNE HANDICAP

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Sha Tin (M44) - Thursday, 7 February 2019

17:15 HK TIME

summary


A good barrier and a significant (8.5kg) drop in weight will both help PICKEN return to the winner’s enclosure. He has displayed enough ability to be winning C3 events and although he couldn’t pick up the leader and winner in Care Free Prince on his last outing, he might be the bunny they have to catch this time around. He doesn’t appear to have the same overall potential as a couple of other horses from John Size’s yard, but he should be hard to beat here although the top of this grade might find him out. Picken has come up a very short price though and I don’t believe he deserves such billing. The drop back to 1,400m should suit FEARLESS FIRE who might have to be ridden patiently from the wide gate. He is racing well and is a legitimate contender; he’ll just need a genuinely run race, which isn’t guaranteed. The drop back to this class will help MAGIC LEGEND who hasn’t won in a while (22 months), but Douglas Whyte is the only rider to have won aboard him and this is certainly the easiest test on paper than he’s had over that time. Both YOUNG LEGEND and GOOD FOR YOU don’t have a great deal to find in this event to be right in the finish, with each coming off sound runs in a lower grade. They are worth small outlays at their respective prices. And if Last Kingdom is rated a little better close to the front end of the race, he could run a cheeky one too, as he has simply gone too hard on his last couple of starts, but hasn’t disgraced himself. The drop back in distance might help in that regard. So Picken is on top, but I can’t help but see the value outside of him with Fearless Fire, Young Legend and Good For You.

selections


14 PICKEN

(rp – $3.50)

1st @ $1.90 & $1.20 ($2.70 best corporate)

2 MAGIC LEGEND

(rp – $6.00)

8th

6 FEARLESS FIRE

(rp – $7.00)

10th

12 YOUNG LEGEND

(rp – $12.00)

4th

13 GOOD FOR YOU

(rp – $15.00)

5th

strategy


6 FEARLESS FIRE

WIN (small units)

12 YOUNG LEGEND

WIN (smaller units)

13 GOOD FOR YOU

WIN (smaller units)

speed


The pace here is a little muddling but overall the pace should be GOOD. MAGIC LEGEND, BEAUTY SPIRIT and LUCKY DOLLAR can contest the lead with PICKEN drawn to position behind them. Other pace could come from VOYAGE KING and PERFECT BUDDY.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)