R9 NAM SANG WAI HANDICAP

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Sha Tin (M41) - Sunday, 27 January 2019

17:10 HK TIME

summary


There are three newcomers in this event, but they would want to be pretty good to measure up against some of the in-form and fit horses. The pace should be genuine enough with last start winner HARD PROMISE likely to work forward in the lead and his win rated well enough for him to go close again, even though he takes a rise in class. MIDNIGHT RATTLER is another up in grade following a win but he might find it hard to get the right run from a wide gate and I’m happy to look outside of him. There are two genuine chances with AEROHAPPINESS and GRADE ONE. The former has been given a freshen-up following defeat in October and his recent trials have suggested he is on target to run a big race. He doesn’t need to find a lot on his best effort and he maps perfectly. Grade One might be a touch further back, but he was sensational behind the highly progressive Big Party last start and off a solid speed posted a great final-200m (11.18 second-best of meeting). He will be value in this and is a good bet. Outside of those, SHIMMER AND SHINE has worked well leading in to this event and HONEST WAY is capable if the pace is strong enough. All-in-all this looks like a Class 3 with plenty of depth.

selections


12 GRADE ONE

(rp – $4.00)

1st @ $6.20 & $1.70 ($7.00 best corporate)

14 AEROHAPPINESS

(rp – $3.80)

2nd @ $1.40p (quinella with 12 @ $8.40)

9 HARD PROMISE

(rp – $6.50)

3rd @ $1.90p (trifecta/tierce with 12 & 14 @ $103.00)

13 SHIMMER AND SHINE

(rp – $10.00)

4th (quartet/first-four with 12, 14 & 9 @ $427.00)

10 HONEST WAY

(rp – $12.00)

6th

strategy


12 GRADE ONE

WIN (small units)

9 HARD PROMISE

WIN (small units)

speed


HARD PROMISE can lead this at a GOOD speed overall. AEROHAPPINESS and MIDNIGHT RATTLER can also find positions forward in the running. SHIMMER AND SHINE maps ideally and the race shape should suit GRADE ONE as well.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)