R8 THE HONG KONG CLASSIC MILE

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Sha Tin (M41) - Sunday, 27 January 2019

16:35 HK TIME

Runner-by-Runner


DARK DREAM: The Queensland Derby winner took just two starts to show his worth in Hong Kong when blitzing a decent field over 2,000m a month ago. He has had a trial since, but the drop back to a mile and a wide gate might play against him. He deserves his billing at the top of the Hong Kong Derby market, but I’m not so sure the same should be applied here over 1600m. That said, of course he is still a major player.

EASY GO EASY WIN: He finished second in a key form reference for this race, although he was well-positioned given the tempo. I expect he will find it harder here.

FURORE: The Australian-import has had two starts since arriving in Hong Kong and finished third to Ka Ying Star second-up. He will strip fitter but has looked dour in Hong Kong and I am expecting him to find a few of these too sharp. The second and third legs of the four-year-old series look more suitable.

HARMONY VICTORY: Has been holding his form well. He has plenty to find against Dark Dream on their last meeting but is fit and racing well and can pick up a minor cheque. The wide draw might not be as bad as it looks as he’s seemed to be more comfortable galloping with space on his outside.

SUPERICH: He’s been a tragedy beaten on more than one occasion this season but continues to post some impressive performances in defeat. I like the move to a mile and the addition of cheek-pieces. Zac Purton stays with him and I think he can win the Classic Mile today.

MR SO AND SO:  This former Victorian has really improved lately and his last win rated to put him right into contention for this today. A son of So You Think, the mile should be a bonus for him.

KA YING STAR: He beat several rivals when attaining a soft lead on his Hong Kong debut, but still produced the race-best final-200m (11.23). He had all favours but it was still a very solid win. I doubt he will get it that easy this time, but he’s a leading chance with a repeat performance.

GOLD WIN: He could potentially run in to the frame at massive odds. His last run over 1,200m at Happy Valley was much better than it reads and the step to a mile will suit.

PACKING WARRIOR: It was a very nice debut from this French import, formerly known as Not Mine. He genuinely peaked on his run on his Hong Kong debut for sixth to Mr So And So. Up to a mile and being naturally fitter, he cant be discarded.

TIGRE DU TERRE: He performed well in a slowly-run race first up and the Vet found nothing wrong with him following an ordinary run behind Ka Ying Star last time. I need to see him perform again before being convinced of his level.

CHARITY GO: He’ll be a good value chance here. He should have won against a number of rivals two starts back and had excuses last time. He can bounce back at big odds.

HEAVENLY THOUGHT: He hasn’t done much at either Hong Kong start and the runner-up in the Queensland Derby (Australia) might be better suited over further.

MISSION TYCOON: He’s on the back-up and went far too hard on-pace last week. He maps well, but he also needs to raise the bar in order for him to be a factor.

GREEN LUCK: Surprisingly doesn’t have a great deal to find to be competitive here. The drop in weight will help and he is fit and racing well.

summary


There’s a bit of quality to the 2019 Hong Kong Classic Mile, the first leg of the four-year-old series. I feel that DARK DREAM is a risk at his price even though he was superb winning his last start. He’s a deserved favourite for the Hong Kong Derby over 2000m, but dropping back to a mile today and drawing wide leaves him vulnerable and opens up some value elsewhere. SUPERICH is the main outlay here. The gear change is a good thing and Zac Purton will aim to be positive from barrier 10 given there isn’t a great deal of speed on paper. MR SO AND SO deserves a lot of respect and should get one of the runs of the race. Moreira will no doubt be looking to get “first run” on Superich and a few others again. KA YING STAR was impressive on HK debut and if he progresses at all is a factor again. CHARITY GO is worth another chance. If he gets out to a good price then I suggest having a unit on him to win. He is more than capable of being competitive. The approach is to back Superich strongly each way. There is some value in quinellas with him, Mr So And So, Ka Ying Star and Charity Go.

 

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selections


5 SUPERICH

(rp – $4.00)

7th

6 MR SO AND SO

(rp – $5.00)

8th

7 KA YING STAR

(rp – $7.00)

3rd @ $2.80p

11 CHARITY GO

(rp – $15.00)

10th

1 DARK DREAM

(rp – $7.00)

4th

strategy


5 SUPERICH

WIN & PLACE (4 x 8)

5 with 6

QUINELLA (1.5 units)

5 with 7

QUINELLA (1 unit)

5 with 11

QUINELLA (0.5 unit)

speed


There doesn’t look like there’ll be a great deal of pace on paper here. KA YING STAR and MISSION TYCOON can contest for the lead with SUPERICH rolling forward to sit handy. MR SO AND SO can get one of the runs of the race from GOLD WIN.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)