R7 SOUTHORN HANDICAP

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Happy Valley (M40) - Wednesday, 23 January 2019

22:15 HK TIME

summary


The short-priced favourite BIGWOOD obviously has solid claims but the Purton/Fownes combination might be over bet in this one with Bigwood having form around Ho Ho Khan. Incidentally, that race has worked out exceptionally well with Happy Dragon (fourth), Tianchi Monster (seventh) and Zilong (12th) all scoring wins on their next start. Bigwood is the leading chance to win but with top weight and from a tricky gate, he will need his share of luck. If JOLLY GENE and/or VIGOR FAME pressure PLANET STAR for the lead, then it sets up nicely for the favourite. However, I think Planet Star might get his own way in front and not go hard and with no weight on the ‘C’ course; he will take some running down. If the pace is genuine, then I believe NAMJONG PLUS, who ran fifth to Ho Ho Khan in the aforementioned race, will run a good race at a price. RICKFIELD comes through the same form reference and this seems his best course and distance. So to me a lot depends on the overall speed, but there are two nice bets at odds, Planet Star and Namjong Plus.

selections


10 PLANET STAR

(rp – $6.50)

11th

5 NAMJONG PLUS

(rp – $8.00)

1st @ $10.55 & $2.40 ($12.00 best corporate)

1 BIGWOOD

(rp – $5.00)

6th

6 RICKFIELD

(rp – $9.00)

4th

strategy


10 PLANET STAR

WIN (2.5 units)

5 NAMJONG PLUS

WIN (1.5 units)

speed


There isn’t going to be a great deal of pressure in this race according to my assessment with PLANET STAR leading at a steady tempo. JOLLY GENE can go forward with VIGOR FAME and PING HAI TREASURE can trail the leader

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)