R5 SIU SAI WAN HANDICAP

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Happy Valley (M40) - Wednesday, 23 January 2019

21:15 HK TIME

summary


The booking of Joao Moreira on HAPPY WARRIOR will ensure a short price and whilst he is the most likely horse to win the race he might be too short to wager. His form reads well, although my take on his last run is that off a slow tempo he just didn’t quite know how to put them away, but he has to be a big chance to atone. That said, if you give him a solid chance then CHARITY GRAND has to be given serious claims as well. He is open to a touch of improvement going in to this event third-up and he’s drawn to get an economical run. Charity Grand was close enough to Happy Warrior when they met last start and is 1kg better off. CURLING LUXURY is in good form but he may find it hard to last this time with SUPREME WITNESS in the race and likely to ensure a solid tempo. If that scenario eventuates then things could work out nicely for MERRYGOWIN who has progressed well this term and comes through a solid race won by Nicconi Express – this is a lot easier. ALPHA HEDGE has hit the frame on his last three starts and is holding his form satisfactorily. He’s drawn to get one of the runs of the race, so that will be of significant benefit. The value bets here are Charity Grand and Merrygowin however even though Happy Warrior is clearly the horse to beat.

selections


7 HAPPY WARRIOR

(rp – $3.00)

6th

11 CHARITY GRAND

(rp – $5.00)

1st @ $5.10 & $1.70 ($8.00 best corporate)

1 MERRYGOWIN

(rp – $7.00)

4th

6 ALPHA HEDGE

(rp – $8.00)

2nd @ $2.70p (quinella with 11 @ $22.10)

strategy


11 CHARITY GRAND

WIN (small units)

1 MERRYGOWIN

WIN (small units)

speed


I expect GOOD overall speed here with SUPREME WITNESS and CURLING LUXURY on the top end. POLYMER LUCK and VICTORY POWER won’t be far away and it looks on paper like HAPPY WARRIOR and ALPHA HEDGE will land ideal positions during the running

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)