There’s plenty of pace on paper here and overall this is not much of a race. If it is run as expected, LIGHTNING TREASURE could be well suited. He was excellent against a steady tempo on his last outing when producing a solid final-400m (22.92 eighth-best of the meeting) and getting closest at the finish. It would seem he is better when allowed to find his feet in the early stages, so for this Hong Kong maiden it means I wouldn’t want to take too short a price. There was no fluke about the win of THOU SHALL SING last time, beating subsequent winners Special Stars and Midnight Rattler and although he carries more weight this time, he can be right in the finish again. GRACIOUS RYDER has been posting some pretty good numbers against solid opposition (Honest Way and Happy Tour) and this is clearly easier, so he shouldn’t be far away either. He’s another, similar to Lightning Treasure, who the race shape suits. TOM’S DRAGON comes through the same form line as Lightning Treasure and can be competitive, although it’s very tough to win from barrier 12 over the 1000m when there’s decent speed drawn on your inside. It’s not a big outlay race, but again be diligent regarding prices. Thou Shall Sing and Gracious Ryder might be worth small outlays. If Lightning Treasure is greater than $4.80 then he could be played, but it’s not a big outlay race and kicking for touch a small quinella with my top-three is a conservative option.