R2 HOLLYWOOD HANDICAP

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Sha Tin (M39) - Sunday, 20 January 2019

13:30 HK TIME

summary


The cheek pieces being applied to I DO along with the step up to a mile make him a good play in this event. He is far from the finished product at this stage, but the son of So You Think clearly has above average ability. Nothing really went right for him behind Pearl Champion last time and although he is poorly drawn here, he can win with the right ride from Champion jockey Zac Purton. I expect that he will tend to being positive from barrier 14 given the lack of natural speed in the race overall. EVER LAUGH and MY WINNER come through the same form race (259), which was steadily run and rated just okay. The latter was a touch held up and is better off at the weights (3kg swing) in comparison to the former here so there shouldn’t be much between them. FLAME LILY just worked too hard when fading behind Picken on his last outing and with a more measured ride with the step up in trip can improve. On raw figures, Flame Lily doesn’t have a lot to find. If taking exotics, both VICTORIOUS LEADER and SWOT WINDICATOR can be included, as they come through the same 1400m race (276) where they both closed well and each will relish the move up in distance to 1600m today. As a straight out play though I’m happy to back I DO to win this.

selections


4 I DO

(rp – $3.00)

2nd @ $1.50p (quinella with 2 @ $19.85)

5 MY WINNER

(rp – $7.00)

4th (quartet/first-four with 2, 4 & 11 @ $2014.60)

3 FLAME LILY

(rp – $5.00)

6th

2 EVER LAUGH

(rp – $12.00)

1st @ $8.40 & $2.40 ($9.00 best corporate)

12 VICTORIOUS LEADER

(rp – $18.00)

10th

11 SWOT WINDICATOR

(rp – $20.00)

3rd @ $4.95p (trifecta/tierce with 2 & 4 @ $638.30)

strategy


4 I DO

WIN (5 units)

speed


There isn’t much speed on paper here with FLAME LILY likely to be pushed forward from MY WINNER and CHATER THUNDER. GREAT HARVEST and I DO are others that can sit close to the speed.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)