R7 WONG NAI CHUNG HANDICAP

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Happy Valley (M38) - Wednesday, 16 January 2019

22:15 HK TIME

summary


The rise in grade and drop in weight are a significant combination of factors for NOBLE DELIGHT, who will be having his fourth run this preparation and looks primed to win again. He maps nicely in an event with plenty of pace as well and where there looks a false favourite in PRANCE DRAGON. Noble Delight as a result is an excellent price and a good win bet option. HARRIER JET is also a leading chance and this galloper has been a touch high in the ratings but has fallen further to a suitable mark that he can win off (previous wins have come of r76 & r72). The tempo went against Harrier Jet last time and if he can settle midfield on the fence then he has claims to get into the finish. BUOYANT BOY is holding his form well, likes this course and gets a race run to suit. He is a big priced over going off the early betting – he can run far better than market expectation. FEARLESS FIRE comes through the same form lines (Race 251) and he too was sound against a slow tempo last time out. The favourite PRANCE DRAGON has worked well leading in to this event, but none of his runs have rated that well and even though Tony Millard has a good strike-rate with stable acquisitions fresh up, I’m happy to take him on at his short quote.

selections


12 NOBLE DELIGHT

(rp – $4.50)

10th

2 HARRIER JET

(rp – $6.50)

9th

7 BUOYANT BOY

(rp – $10.00)

6th

3 FEARLESS FIRE

(rp – $9.00)

5th

strategy


12 NOBLE DELIGHT

WIN (4 units)

7 BUOYANT BOY

WIN (1.5 units)

speed


Another race where I expect there to be excellent speed. PRINCE HARMONY can set the tempo from LITTLE BIRD with BLITZING and NOBLE DELIGHT likely to sit just off them. POWERMAX and PRANCE DRAGON should be well-suited by the overall race shape.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)