R5 THE CRAIGENGOWER CRICKET CLUB CHALLENGE CUP

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Happy Valley (M38) - Wednesday, 16 January 2019

21:15 HK TIME

summary


It’s hard to outlay into this event with huge confidence primarily because there are only a couple of lengths separating at least five of the entrants. The blinkers look like being a good addition for JOLLY BOUNTIFUL, but from the outside draw, he has his work cut out. Then again, there does look plenty of speed in the race and if ridden with a touch of patience, he should go well. DRAGON DANCE finished alongside him the last time they ran against each other (Race 287) and there wasn’t much between them. Given the barrier draws, there might not be much between them this time either with Dragon Dance’s advantage being he should settle a couple of lengths or more ahead of Jolly Bountiful in the running. The drop in grade will help PHANTOM FALCON, along with the claim and he arguably should be favourite for this event, albeit a narrow and loose one. The main concern for him is there isn’t much of him and weight makes it difficult. GOUTEN OF GARO is one that maps well but he is still a Hong Kong maiden from 14 starts and has been frustrating at times when backing him to win following solid performances. NAVAS takes a drop in grade, has Zac Purton booked and worked home well (22.71 final-400m) off a steady tempo last time behind Speed Vision. It’s a tough race, I won’t be recommending a specific outlay, use my prices accordingly, which will likely mean a small bet on Phantom Falcon (each way, with emphasis on him to place).

selections


2 PHANTOM FALCON

(rp – $5.50)

4th

6 JOLLY BOUNTIFUL

(rp – $6.00)

3rd @ $1.85p

1 NAVAS

(rp – $6.00)

1st @ $4.20 & $1.80

11 GOUTEN OF GARO

(rp – $9.00)

5th

12 DRAGON DANCE

(rp – $9.00)

11th

strategy


NO OUTLAY RECOMMENDED

use prices accordingly.

speed


There appears to be GOOD pace here with SUPER EURO STAR, PHANTOM FALCON, DRAGON DANCE and FLYING MONKEY contesting for the front early. GOUTEN OF GARO might secure the perfect trip on the rails behind the main speed.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)