best selections and strategies
Sha Tin (M37) - Saturday, 12 January 2019
33 32.5 units Strategy
best outlay
RACE 10
14 TORNADO TWIST (rp – $2.40)
WIN (8.5 units)
14 with 3 & 11
QUINELLA (0.5 unit each, 1 0.5 unit total)
TORNADO TWIST was a very impressive winner of his second career start when he powered home off the back of a genuine tempo. That suggested he could clearly take a step-up to Class 3 and win carrying a light weight. A couple of other horses present at decent prices that can run well, VOLPINO and SHIMMER AND SHINE (late scratched). The former will be better over the Sha Tin 1200m with the latter fresh up for new trainer Caspar Fownes.
Results: 1st @ $2.20 best corporate – post deductions (+10.2 units) + 9th (-0.5 unit) -> (+9.7 units)
NEXT BEST OUTLAYS
RACE 8
13 RIGHT CHOICE (rp – $2.70)
WIN (6.5 units)
14 HAPPY FORCE (rp – $6.00)
WIN (2.5 units)
RIGHT CHOICE will be wearing blinkers for the first time today and if that helps focus him a fraction more then he’s going to be hardest to beat in this Class 3 1400m today. Getting away ‘on time’ will be important as he’s drawn close to the rail which should be an advantage if he can keep in touch early. HAPPY FORCE has done little wrong his last two starts in particular. He can set them up in front once more at a pace to suit which will make him hard to run down.
Results: 1st @ $3.00 best corporate (+13 units) + 3rd (-2.5 units) -> (+10.5 units)
RACE 9
9 GO PUBLIC (rp – $6.00)
WIN (2.5 units)
7 RAGING BLITZKRIEG (rp – $6.00)
WIN (2.5 units)
4 TURIN REDSTAR (rp – $8.00)
WIN (1.5 units)
This dirt contest is very competitive and there are six or seven horses that could win without surprising however off my assessment the best ‘overs’ are GO PUBLIC, RAGING BLITZKRIEG and TURIN REDSTAR (yes, again! One more time!). GO PUBLIC really impresses me with how he continues to run on the AWT and I think he’ll cope with the step up in distance. Whilst RAGING BLITZKREIG has a tricky draw to overcome and more ground, but should also be suited and not discounted so much by the market because of these factors – he’s up to the level required.
Results: 2nd (-2.5 units) + 7th (-2.5 units) + 4th (-1.5 units) -> (-6.5 units)
RACE 3
6 DOR DOR (rp – $4.00)
WIN (5 units)
7 SPLENDOUR AND GOLD (rp – $5.50)
WIN (3 units)
SPLENDOUR AND GOLD has worked rather stylishly leading in to his debut and looks to have a fair amount of potential in an event that lacks some depth. And the debut run of DOR DOR was most encouraging and he will relish the move up in trip for the Size and Moreira combination. In a thin race, these two progressive types can fight out the finish.
Results: 8th (-5 units) + 3rd (-3 units) -> (-8 units)
Overall result for 32.5 units strategy
+5.7 UNITS (17.5% PROFIT)
The heavy rain during the Sha Tin program really influenced the track, it was a huge advantage to be racing close to the rail and on the speed.
Have Fun Together ran an enormous race all things considered. He missed the kick by a couple of lengths before getting held up at the top of the straight, and made huge ground late and wide on the track.
Superich was brilliant and he looks a galloper with a lot of promise. He maintained a wide run and was powerful through the line. Noble Steed also did a good job to finish second, he’s got points in hand for the new season.
Shining On and Sunshine Holiday never really got into the race given how the track played.
So that brings to an end season 2017/18. Congratulations to John Size, Champion Trainer and Zac Purton, Champion Jockey for their achievements through out the term. It will certainly be a different landscape with Joao Moreira leaving to Japan and I look forward to unlocking plenty of winners factoring-in next season’s crop of jockeys!
Thanks for following Hutchi’s Honkers through out Hong Kong season 2017/18! It was satisfying to turn a seasonal profit, that was the goal and even though it wasn’t large, for bigger players who are able to earn rebates via their respective agencies, it’s been significant.
Cheers
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SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:
88
MEETINGS - SEASONS END
2485
TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS
+39.8
UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)