R5 NGA TSIN WAI HANDICAP

-


Sha Tin (M35) - Sunday, 6 January 2019

15:00 HK TIME

summary


I like the booking of Zac Purton to ride TOP LAURELS in this contest and the horse should handle this surface based on his pedigree. He has been super in defeat this season and has had clear excuses for not winning on a number of occasions. So whilst it is always a little risky taking horses on trust when racing for the first time on this surface, he seems the type to handle it. TANG FLEMING worked far too hard from a wide gate last time over this course and distance in the race (224) where CHUNG WAH SPIRIT and NUCLEAR POWER finished ahead of him. He might be able to turn the tables on that pair this time with a more measured ride. FAMOUS WARRIOR will have his admirers as he can contest for the lead, but once again, he will be having his first run on the surface. He comes from a high rating contest won by Ho Ho Khan, which has produced three subsequent winners (Happy Dragon, Bianchi Monster and Zilong) and in that race he simply went too hard in the lead. There are probably more questions than answers for this race though, however a small win bet on Top Laurels is the way I’m leaning.

selections


3 TOP LAURELS

(rp – $4.50)

4th

4 FAMOUS WARRIOR

(rp – $5.00)

3rd @ $2.75p

1 TANG FLEMING

(rp – $6.50)

6th

12 CHUNG WAH SPIRIT

(rp – $8.50)

5th

strategy


3 TOP LAURELS

WIN (small units)

speed


There’s not much speed here and a midrace move is quite possible. TANG FLEMING and FAMOUS WARRIOR can go forward early and if they choose, Famous Warrior might end up leading outright. ELECTRIC LIGHTNING can go forward from barrier 11 with TOP LAURELS tucked in just behind the leaders.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)