R5 WONG LENG HANDICAP

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Sha Tin (M34) - Tuesday, 1 January 2019

14:30 HK TIME

summary


I believe PICKEN might be a risk here as the good figures he posted last time were so far above anything he had posted in the past, on what I believed was a track suiting those closer to the pace. That being said, he still has to rate a solid chance against this opposition, but my adjustments according to my assessment of the track across the program of his last start won’t have him as highly rated compared to the market. He was well held behind Smart Charade (race 277) in a race where we gave him a chance, but NOBLE DE LOVE was far better there and should have his measure here today. Noble De Love defied the race shape and track pattern that day and hinted he is one to follow. He will be a bet. FRESH POWER is definitely in the mix, following his run when just ahead of Noble De Love when they clashed at the end of November. We liked him that day and while disappointed at the time, it has proven to be an extremely strong race with Happy Force (two wins), Pearl Champion and Majestic Endeavour all winning since and a host of other runners hitting the frame.

selections


7 NOBLE DE LOVE

(rp – $2.70)

2nd @ $1.20p (quinella with 6 @ $4.55)

3 FRESH POWER

(rp – $5.50)

3rd @ $1.55p (trifecta/tierce with 6 & 7 @ $28.70)

6 PICKEN

(rp – $5.00)

1st @ $3.20 & $1.45 ($3.60 best corporate)

strategy


7 NOBLE DE LOVE

WIN

speed


There’s a bit of speed drawn wide here so the overall pace should be GOOD, although if positions are found quickly then obviously the good tempo could evaporate quickly. PICKEN can lead from SUPER FUN and MULTIGOGO. NOBLE DE LOVE should secure a perfect position behind these horses.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)