best selections and strategies


Sha Tin (M34) - Tuesday, 1 January 2019

39 units Strategy

best outlay


RACE 9

9 CONTE (rp – $1.70)

WIN (10 units)

CONTE shapes as the best bet of the afternoon following a very impressive last start performance. If he holds that level then with his relatively light weight I expect him to be ridden positively on the speed and be too strong for his opposition.

Result: 1st @ $1.80 best corporate (+8 units)

NEXT BEST OUTLAYS


RACE 8

5 REGENCY LEGEND (rp – $1.75)

WIN (7.5 units) 

5 with 7

QUINELLA (1.5 units)

REGENCY LEGEND ran to a level just shy of the Hong Kong International Sprint when he won on the same day in early December. Again it’s a case of this horse repeating that (he could even naturally improve) and if he does he should be too strong. MISSION TYCOON was excellent in a dirt race recently and he can bring that form to the turf and represents a good quinella option with Regency Legend.

Result: 1st @ $1.90 best corporate (+6.75 units) + 3rd (-1.5 units) -> (+5.25 units)

RACE 11

4 WAIKUKU (rp – $3.00)

WIN (5 units)

4 with 9

QUINELLA (1 unit)

4 with 2 & 12

QUINELLA (0.5 units each, 1 unit total)

WAIKUKU delivered a very good performance when he debuted in Hong Kong and again, trusting that he has come out of that run well, he can take another step forward and win today. It’s not a race without depth and good chances though as I expect DIAMOND RHYME, ENCOURAGING and LADY FIRST to run well also.

Result: 1st @ $2.90 (+9.5 units) + (-2 units) -> (+7.5 units)

RACE 7

9 YOUNG LEGEND (rp – $3.20)

WIN (5 units)

A horse that has featured in my Sweet In Defeat (SID) reviews is YOUNG LEGEND. He was held up for a large portion of the straight at his last start (that also featured Key Witness) but I expect he can find a good position from barrier 3 and be right in the fight in the finish.

Result: 1st @ $4.20 best corporate (+16 units)

RACE 10

8 PAKISTAN FRIEND (rp – $4.20)

WIN (4 units)

5 VINCY (rp – $4.50)

WIN (4 units)

Two horses shape as good bets at the right prices in race 10, PAKISTAN FRIEND and VINCY. The former really impresses me with what he continues to do in his races and from barrier 14 he can punch forward, sustain good sectionals and be hardest to beat. Vincy comes out of an undeniably strong form race (226) and Zac Purton takes the ride from a good draw. One trait of Frankie Lor-trained horses is that they really seem to find improvement from their fresh-up run to their second-up start. This horse is likely to follow that trend.

Result: 3rd (-4 units) + 2nd (-4 units) -> (-8 units)

Overall result for 39 unit strategy


+28.75 UNITS  (74% PROFIT)

The heavy rain during the Sha Tin program really influenced the track, it was a huge advantage to be racing close to the rail and on the speed.

Have Fun Together ran an enormous race all things considered. He missed the kick by a couple of lengths before getting held up at the top of the straight, and made huge ground late and wide on the track.

Superich was brilliant and he looks a galloper with a lot of promise. He maintained a wide run and was powerful through the line. Noble Steed also did a good job to finish second, he’s got points in hand for the new season.

Shining On and Sunshine Holiday never really got into the race given how the track played.

So that brings to an end season 2017/18. Congratulations to John Size, Champion Trainer and Zac Purton, Champion Jockey for their achievements through out the term. It will certainly be a different landscape with Joao Moreira leaving to Japan and I look forward to unlocking plenty of winners factoring-in next season’s crop of jockeys!

Thanks for following Hutchi’s Honkers through out Hong Kong season 2017/18! It was satisfying to turn a seasonal profit, that was the goal and even though it wasn’t large, for bigger players who are able to earn rebates via their respective agencies, it’s been significant.

Cheers

 

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)