R3 LUNG HANG HANDICAP

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Sha Tin (M33) - Saturday, 29 December 2018

14:00 HK TIME

summary


This is a very tricky race in many respects. There are eight horses that have had three starts or fewer, of those five are first-starters. This makes the accurately assessing the map and pricing the race problematical. Of the first starters I’ve liked the look of BLOOMING SPIRIT in work and his trials. Most recently in a Sha Tin 1000m trial he ran second under a good hold to Charity Wings, who placed in a Class 4 sprint at Happy Valley on Boxing Day. We were on CHARIZARD on International Day and he probably sat too close to a decent speed – that seemed to dampen his finish. He’s not a big horse either and the weight might have had an effect also. He’s fitted with a tongue-tie, is dropping back to 1200m and from barrier 5 he’ll hopefully settle comfortably in a midfield spot. These changes can see him run a far better race and be one of the horses to beat. HAINAN STAR was unable to turn the tables on Perfect Match last start, but the effort was still sound for a race like this. The major issue is where he’ll get too in the running from a wide draw, but he’s got a bit about moving forward. CRAIG’S STAR showed speed in a recent trial and I’d expect would be one of the horses to be ridden forward. CHAIRMAN LO has been well-trialled (five in all) with his last two efforts at Happy Valley looking okay to the eye without being spectacular. Overall though this is a race where I recommend outlaying with caution. Charizard can bounce back and it might be worth specking Blooming Spirit at a big price.

selections


1 CHARIZARD

(rp – $3.80)

5th

4 HAINAN STAR

(rp – $4.20)

12th

5 BLOOMING SPIRIT

(rp – $8.00)

9th

6 CHAIRMAN LO

(rp – $8.00)

2nd @ $2.75p

8 CRAIG’S STAR

(rp – $14.00)

4th

strategy


1 CHARIZARD

WIN (small units)

5 BLOOMING SPIRIT

WIN (smaller units)

speed


This is not a straightforward race to map; however a horse like BLOOMING SPIRIT can lead from SPEEDY DRAGON. CRAIG’S STAR showed enough in trials to suggest he can settle handy with HAINAN STAR likely to be ridden positively.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)