R8 MERCURY HANDICAP

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Happy Valley (M32) - Wednesday, 26 December 2018

22:50 HK TIME

summary


This race feels like Groundhog Day! After backing TURIN REDSTAR his last three starts (and he arguably could have won all three) I am not sure I can go again, but I will! He has had a trial since his last outing six weeks ago, but the freshen-up after three hard runs I think is a good thing. He can win and his early price looks ridiculously good. RED WARRIOR was excellent in defeat last time when a touch held-up around the turn only to just fail getting the win and settling for second. Both horses have been in tremendous form this season and a solid case can be made for each. A smaller play could be VOLPINO. He moves up to the mile and his run on HKIR day was eye-catching. He defied the steady tempo but stayed on very well and the move up to a mile is ideal. GOOD OMEN has similar form to Red Warrior and isn’t the worst. The Moreira/Size combo and all ups could lead to Red Warrior coming up very short for the last. The each way outlay on Turin Redstar though looks as solid a bet as you could get in the race given prices.

selections


2 TURIN REDSTAR

(rp – $3.20)

4th

4 RED WARRIOR

(rp – $4.50)

2nd @ 1.20p

12 VOLPINO

(rp – $9.00)

8th

strategy


2 TURIN REDSTAR

WIN & PLACE (4 x 8)

speed


LAND GRANT can work forward to lead this race from potentially TURIN REDSTAR, GOOD STANDING and STIMULATION. RED WARRIOR could work across to find himself in a sweet situation behind these runners.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)