R5 SATURN HANDICAP

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Happy Valley (M32) - Wednesday, 26 December 2018

21:15 HK TIME

summary


On paper this is a tough race and a case can be made for a number of runners. However, there looks to be a good value play here with SHINING ON. There appears to be good speed on paper in this one and hopefully he can slot in just behind midfield without being posted without cover. His breakthrough win last start, which came over this track and trip, rated better than the Class 3 on the same night and whilst he had the benefit of a good draw, it was a solid win all the same. SUPER LEADER (Yip to Fownes) and CHAMPION SUPREME (Fownes to Moore) have both had stable changes, the former going very well with blinkers on (not on here) and the latter performing fairly in two career starts. Super Leader gets a drop in class and the race should be run to suit and he has to be given a strong chance to score. The issue is he has come up rather short in early markets. JOLLY BOUNTIFUL might well be short enough with Moreira-Size factor, but he will get a good run from a low draw. He hit the line (22.84 fourth-best at meeting) very well when taken back last time and no doubt the Magic Man can position him a lot closer this time. He should be the favourite and to my assessment is the horse to beat. APPLAUSE has been holding his form well and as long as he doesn’t drift too far back during the early running, he as another that can figure. The two best outlays though on price are with Jolly Bountiful and Shining On. Super Leader has potential to bounce to a better level with his new trainer though so don’t bet too strongly.

selections


4 JOLLY BOUNTIFUL

(rp – $3.80)

2nd @ $1.85p

8 SHINING ON

(rp – $7.00)

8th

1 SUPER LEADER

(rp – $6.00)

4th

6 CHAMPION SUPREME

(rp – $8.00)

7th

strategy


4 JOLLY BOUNTIFUL

WIN (4.5 units)

8 SHINING ON

WIN (1.5 units)

speed


DRAGON DANCE can set up a GOOD speed from FLYING MONKEY and GALLANT RETURN. LEISURED FEET and EVERBRAVE are drawn awkwardly but can sit off them. JOLLY BOUNTIFUL looks to benefit from the overall race shape.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)