R6 NIGHTJAR HANDICAP

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Happy Valley (M28) - Wednesday, 12 December 2018

21:45 HK TIME

summary


There’s quite a bit of pace in this event and it is a little hard to work out who might get the right position in the running, which will be important given there isn’t much between the ratings of a few of them. The two runners that I’m mainly interested in are COMPLACENCY and MOST BEAUTIFUL but as per it’s a price thing. The former travels to this track for the first time but maps well, had clear excuses for his defeat last start when covering plenty of extra ground and looks to be well suited here. MOST BEAUTIFUL has been excellent this season and might be able to track the speed with a touch of luck from barrier 8. The gate makes it difficult for FEARLESS FIRE but there was plenty to like about his latest win and whilst the rise in grade should pose few issues, where he ends up from the draw could be an issue. BUOYANT BOY might also go out bigger in the market than he should and his form recently is better than it appears at first glance. Overall it’s a competitive race where Complacency is the hardest to beat but the main value looks to be with Most Beautiful and Buoyant Boy.

selections


8 COMPLACENCY

(rp – $4.50)

4th

2 MOST BEAUTIFUL

(rp – $7.50)

5th

5 BUOYANT BOY

(rp – $7.50)

2nd @ $3.50p

7 FEARLESS FIRE

(rp – $6.00)

3rd @ $1.95p

strategy


2 MOST BEAUTIFUL

WIN (2 units)

5 BUOYANT BOY

WIN (2 units)

speed


The pace should be on the FAST side of GOOD with SPEED VISION and FANTASTIC FABIO mixing things up early. VIVA COUNCIL can go forward with MOST BEAUTIFUL and COMPLACENCY potentially securing ideal runs behind the leaders.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)