R4 THE HONG KONG GOLF CLUB CENTENARY CUP (HANDICAP)

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Happy Valley (M28) - Wednesday, 12 December 2018

20:45 HK TIME

summary


There aren’t too many chances on paper in this event and the early betting seems to have found them as well. LIGHTNING STEED has had a stable change (Freedman to Fownes) and his recent trial was excellent. His best form from last season rates well enough to win this event and he might have improved for the stable. He is also drawn to get a good run according to my map. APPLAUSE has been running well all season without winning but he settles back in the field and needs a bit to go his way. He posted the 10th-best final-200m 11.63 when he last competed and with the booking of Zac Purton it might mean he is able to settle a touch closer and get a better chance to win another race. KHAKI has been in solid form this term and doesn’t really have to improve much for him to figure, but he will have to work from the outside gate and that might detract from his finish. However, these are the three main chances. Outside of them, WAH MAY PRINCESS has some upside and has performed satisfactorily for a race of this calibre. He might also be able to find the lead and be able to control the race from that position.

selections


4 LIGHTNING STEED

(rp – $3.50)

4th

10 APPLAUSE

(rp – $4.50)

1st @ $3.20 & $1.45 ($3.60 best corporate)

1 KHAKI

(rp – $6.00)

3rd @ $1.55p

9 WAH MAY PRINCESS

(rp – $8.50)

5th

strategy


4 LIGHTNING STEED

WIN (5 units)

speed


The overall pace should be GOOD here with WAH MAY PRINCESS setting the speed from LIGHTNING STEED and KHAKI. MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE might find a good spot from a tricky draw with RUN MOOCHI tucked just in behind them.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)