R3 FRIGATEBIRD HANDICAP

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Happy Valley (M28) - Wednesday, 12 December 2018

20:15 HK TIME

summary


This is not really a race I want to bet on. WONDERFUL TIGER is on the quick back-up and has been runner up over the course and distance at his last two starts. He had his chance last time with the perfect trip during the race and when The Sylph is running you down, there have to be some concerns. However, he is a leading chance and should get the right run again. LE PEGASE might be able to make every post a winner in this one and at least he has won two of three starts this season, notably for rookie trainer Jimmy Ting. There is little doubt INDIGENOUS STAR is going to be popular with many on the back of a powerful finish over the Sha Tin mile last start when he was closest at the finish. It was his first run in this grade and he does look like a Class 5 winner waiting to happen. Zac Purton sticking with him is an additional lead to his winning claims here. Indigenous Star’s only run at Happy Valley was a lot better than it reads on paper (he posted a 22.76 final-400m) and he can win, but where he ends up from the barrier is hard to tell as he doesn’t possess a lot of tactical speed. SMART SALUTE has a good record in this grade (5: 2-2-0) and his two career wins have come over the mile. He appears as though he’s have been set for this race. All the above said, it’s a case of please yourself here and to use my prices accordingly.

selections


2 INDIGENOUS STAR

(rp – $4.50)

5th

3 WONDERFUL TIGER

(rp – $5.50)

6th

6 LE PEGASE

(rp – $6.00)

7th

1 SMART SALUTE

(rp – $7.00)

12th

strategy


NO OUTLAY RECOMMENDED

use prices accordingly

speed


LUCKY STORM and LE PEGASE look set to compete for the lead here although overall I don’t expect that the speed will be much faster than GOOD overall. WONDERFUL TIGER maps to get his chance again, with AMAZING GOLD and SPINNING DANCER positioned just behind them.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)