R2 ALBATROSS HANDICAP

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Happy Valley (M28) - Wednesday, 12 December 2018

19:45 HK TIME

summary


The horses with the best form in this race have drawn the worst, which makes it difficult but then again they might be reasonable odds in the market as a consequence. Speaking of being at reasonable odds, I think we can back a couple of runners at nice prices here and potentially be up for a good result. Before we get on to those, the runners that are short and favoured in the early market are clear risks for mine. NOBLE DELIGHT performed poorly in a recent trial and his recent form isn’t good (Moreira on board will mean he is unders) and SPRING WIN isn’t really showing enough either. Both are well in commission from a betting perspective and as a result that opens up percentage to back others. On to the runners that I believe can win with the right circumstances. FIRE AND GOLD is a good bet here, as he was taken out of contention last start in a race that rated well and he was simply given too much to do. That race has had the likes of Happy Tour and Ocean Roar both win since and others hit the frame. His earlier form this term at Happy Valley was respectable but one negative is that his racing pattern means he will be giving competitors “a start” once again. WALDORF is another that is going well but the outside gate beat him last time over this track and trip and he has the same draw again. Will they be a touch more positive this time – quite possibly? TRAVEL DATUK brings in the same form and he too has drawn awkwardly, however is close to a win. Of those on pace, VERY RICH MAN profiles well-enough if you’re willing to forgive his last run. Overall I’m happy to recommend having small outlays on Fire And Gold and Waldorf.

selections


11 FIRE AND GOLD

(rp – $7.50)

8th

3 WALDORF

(rp – $6.00)

1st @ $3.75 & $1.55 ($5.50 best corporate)

2 VERY RICH MAN

(rp – $6.50)

7th

4 TRAVEL DATUK

(rp – $12.00)

3rd @ $2.65p (trifecta & tierce with 3 & 1 @ $222.50)

1 NOBLE DELIGHT

(rp – $8.00)

2nd @ $2.90p (quinella with 3 @ $18.25)

strategy


11 FIRE AND GOLD

WIN & PLACE (2 x 4)

speed


VERY RICH MAN can lead this race at a GOOD speed overall. NOBLE DELIGHT and WAYFOONG CHARMER both have speed and can work forward also. HAPPY COOPERATION is drawn well and can receive an economical run during the race.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)