best selections and strategies


Happy Valley (M28) - Wednesday, 12 December 2018

26 units Strategy

best outlay


RACE 5

1 DYNAMIC EAGLE (rp – $3.50)

WIN (6 units)

DYNAMIC EAGLE should be able to break through for his first win in Hong Kong tonight. Joao Moreira takes the saddle and if he can ride the horse positively from a wide gate and then control the tempo to suit, he can run a good race at a nice price. The maps says he’ll get his opportunity to do just that.

Result: 6th (-6 units)

NEXT BEST OUTLAYS


RACE 7

11 GENTLE BREEZE (rp – $3.00)

WIN (5 units)

GENTLE BREEZE looks well-positioned to make it back to back wins in the higher grade tonight. He put up a very handy number when winning last start and I believe he can go on with it given even luck in the running.

Result: 4th (-5 units)

RACE 4

4 LIGHTNING STEED (rp – $3.50)

WIN (5 units)

Race 4 is an event that is somewhat light on main chances. LIGHTNING STEED competes for the first time at Happy Valley and for Caspar Fownes. He’s drawn to get the right run in the race and even though he’s been going backwards in the ratings he actually has more upside than most others he meets tonight.

Result: 4th (-5 units)

RACE 6

2 MOST BEAUTIFUL (rp – $7.50) 

WIN (2 units)

5 BUOYANT BOY (rp – $7.50)

WIN (2 units)

Race 6 is a case of backing two horses whose prices are way to big given the early market. MOST BEAUTIFUL has a slightly awkward draw to overcome but ran on very well over the shorter distance last time. BUOYANT BOY has been in sound form even though he hasn’t had much go his way since winning two races in a row at the end of last season.

Result: 5th (-2 units) + 2nd (-2 units) -> (-4 units)

best each way


RACE 2

11 FIRE AND GOLD (rp – $7.50)

WIN (2 units) & PLACE (4 units)

FIRE AND GOLD shapes as a very good each way outlay tonight. Whilst he is a horse that lacks early speed and has to give most a start in his races, he continues to run on in a way that suggests it should be long before he breaks maiden status. I map the pace to be GOOD, so as long as it is then he should get his chance.

Result: 8th (-2 units)(-4 units) -> (-6 units)

Overall result for 26 units strategy


-26 UNITS  (100% LOSS)

The heavy rain during the Sha Tin program really influenced the track, it was a huge advantage to be racing close to the rail and on the speed.

Have Fun Together ran an enormous race all things considered. He missed the kick by a couple of lengths before getting held up at the top of the straight, and made huge ground late and wide on the track.

Superich was brilliant and he looks a galloper with a lot of promise. He maintained a wide run and was powerful through the line. Noble Steed also did a good job to finish second, he’s got points in hand for the new season.

Shining On and Sunshine Holiday never really got into the race given how the track played.

So that brings to an end season 2017/18. Congratulations to John Size, Champion Trainer and Zac Purton, Champion Jockey for their achievements through out the term. It will certainly be a different landscape with Joao Moreira leaving to Japan and I look forward to unlocking plenty of winners factoring-in next season’s crop of jockeys!

Thanks for following Hutchi’s Honkers through out Hong Kong season 2017/18! It was satisfying to turn a seasonal profit, that was the goal and even though it wasn’t large, for bigger players who are able to earn rebates via their respective agencies, it’s been significant.

Cheers

 

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)