R8 THE LONGINES HONG KONG CUP (G1)

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Sha Tin (M27) - Sunday, 9 December 2018

16:30 HK TIME

summary


On paper this doesn’t appear to be an overly strong edition of the Hong Kong Cup with the local contingent lacking depth. That being said, TIME WARP who won this race last year, was very good when winning the Sa Sa Ladies’ Purse last month and he had clear excuses on a brutal tempo in the Jockey Club Cup two weeks later. It seems all or nothing with him, he needs to attain a lead on his terms and when that is the case then he is a very hard horse to catch. However, his form hasn’t been the same since a brutally run Hong Kong Gold Cup back in February this year and he must be taken on trust and to me is around his right price in the market. Once again, the Japanese seem to have a strong handle on what’s required to win this race and might even fight out the finish here with SUNGRAZER and DEIRDRE. The former was a gallant second in the Group 1 Tenno Sho to Rey De Oro and that is top end form from Japan. Several with ‘inferior’ form to that have come to Hong Kong and prevailed, so this son of Deep Impact who has a fantastic overall record should take some beating. DEIRDRE arrives with wins at Group 2 and Group 3 level in Japan but the form around her is excellent. Back in March she was third to Benbatl in the Dubai Turf so the fact she has travelled and performed is encouraging. She shapes as a logical quinella option with Sungrazer and a major positive is that she that she looks to have improved since Dubai also. Of the others, GLORIOUS FOREVER could improve with a more conservative ride. As far a betting strategy for this event, the main bet will be Sungrazer and a quinella with Deirdre.

selections


1 SUNGRAZER

(rp – $2.20)

4th (first-four/quartet with 8, 9 & 2 @ $232.30)

9 DEIRDRE

(rp – $4.40)

2nd @ $1.35p (quinella with 8 @ $10.55)

2 TIME WARP

(rp – $9.00)

3rd $1.80p (trifecta/tierce with 8 & 9 @ $104.10)

8 GLORIOUS FOREVER

(rp – $16.00)

1st @ $7.80 & $2.15 ($10.00 best corporate)

strategy


1 SUNGRAZER

WIN (9 units)

1 with 9

QUINELLA (2 units)

speed


With trainer Frankie Lor suggesting during the week that he doesn’t want GLORIOUS FOREVER “dueling” for the lead with TIME WARP it could allow the latter a soft early lead. SUNGRAZER should sit perfectly behind STORMY ANTARCTIC and STAPHANOS.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)